Saturday, December 6, 2008

Dubai speculators quit amid loan drought

THE classified ads in Dubai now read like an obituary for a real estate market that until a few months ago seemed immune to the global credit crisis.

A Turkish investor, who identified himself as Sebat, took out 10 bright yellow ads in the Nov 25 edition of Gulf News, the United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) biggest newspaper, with the headline: ‘DIRECT FROM OWNER DISTRESS SALE!!!’ Sebat said he used to be able to buy four or five properties at a time and sell them the next day for a profit of as much as 5 per cent.

‘There is panic in the market,’ said Sebat, 52, who wouldn’t give his full name because he’s juggling 60 properties.

The property bubble in the desert emirate - home to the world’s tallest building, most expensive hotel suite and largest man-made islands - is bursting as scarce credit and slumping oil prices have international investors scurrying to dump assets.

That may shatter Dubai’s goal of creating a sustainable economy by building the Persian Gulf hub for finance and tourism, forcing it to depend on oil-rich neighbour Abu Dhabi for financing.

‘Dubai is more precarious than it has ever been,’ said Christopher Davidson, author of Dubai: The Vulnerability of Success (2008, Columbia University Press). ‘If the property industry collapses in Dubai, it will be finished. Dubai’s relative autonomy will come to an abrupt end.’

The emirate’s push into luxury property developments and tourist attractions was diversification on ‘paper sand’, said Davidson, a professor of Middle Eastern affairs at Durham University in the UK.

Real estate prices may drop 20 per cent or more, analysts at EFG-Hermes Holding SAE, the biggest publicly traded investment bank in Egypt, said in a report this week.

Nakheel PJSC, the Dubai state-owned developer of three palm-shaped islands in the Persian Gulf, said on Nov 30 that it is scaling back or delaying work on some of its US$30 billion in projects, including the 62-storey Trump International Hotel & Tower near the Mega Yacht Club on the trunk of Palm Jumeirah.

The sheikhdom may need help from Abu Dhabi and the UAE to service its debt, according to Moody’s. Dubai borrowed US$80 billion to finance its transformation and make up for a lack of natural resources. It has just 4 billion barrels of oil reserves, compared with Abu Dhabi’s 92.2 billion barrels. But Dubai officials say the emirate can weather the storm.

Source : Business Times - 6 Dec 2008

URA plan draws strong interest

THE Master Plan 2008 - an ambitious blueprint setting out Singapore’s physical development for the next 10 to 15 years - has attracted plenty of attention from the public.

Its exhibition received more than 200,000 visitors over the past six months, and about 300 submissions have been made - 80 per cent of them online - according to the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) yesterday.

The feedback ranged across several aspects of the plan, which was unveiled in May by National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan.

It contains ambitious schemes to transform Jurong East, Kallang and Paya Lebar into sub-metropolitan hubs of offices, hotels, education and entertainment centres, parks and homes.

Some of the feedback included calls for the allocation of space for activities in Paya Lebar Central. The Station Plaza in front of the Paya Lebar MRT station and the plaza space next to the civic centre at Geylang Serai were cited as possible venues.

Feedback on the Leisure Plan was generally positive, including comments from members of the public that they were excited about the 150km round-island route, added the URA. Suggestions were also made on ways to enhance Jurong Lake District to improve transport with people movers and river taxis.

The URA said it would study the suggestions and is ‘working with other agencies to see how we can incorporate (the public feedback) in our plan’.

The Master Plan was gazetted - or made official - yesterday. It can be viewed at the URA Centre in Maxwell Road.

Source : Straits Times - 6 Dec 2008

Don’t buy, don’t sell

Sit tight and wait for recession dust to settle, say financial and real estate experts in a survey

PROPERTY investors here might feel like cutting and running but the best advice is to sit tight and hold on, according to a PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) report.

The report, now in its third year, asked about 180 experts from across the region - in fields from real estate to banking and property development - for their strategies on whether to hold their investments, buy more or sell.

Mr Stephen Blank, senior resident fellow of finance at the research firm Urban Land Institute, a co-publisher of the report, described the mood: ‘Interviewees say that we are in a wait-and-see mode, and everyone’s sitting on the sidelines waiting for the dust to settle.’

About 65 per cent of those polled urged investors in Singapore real estate to hold on to their investments in the hotel sector and in rental apartments.

‘Visitor numbers have been slipping, and in 2009, the hotel sector might not perform as well as 2008,’ said Mr Nicholas Mak, director of consultancy and research at Knight Frank.

‘Nevertheless, the mid-term outlook is still positive due to the many new offerings in the tourism and Meetings, Incentives, Conventions and Exhibitions (Mice) market, which resulted in the relatively high hold calls.’

Other sectors here, namely office, retail and industrial/distribution, each attracted hold recommendations from at least 50 per cent of those surveyed.

This was up on last year, when the hold recommendations varied from 29 per cent in the office sector to 48 per cent in the industrial/distribution sector.

The strongest buy recommendations came from the industrial/distribution sector, with 34.8 per cent of respondents urging investors to plough in more cash.

Mr Colin Tan, director of research and consultancy at Chesterton Suntec International, said: ‘The industrial sector is pretty diverse. Pockets of industries are doing well. This will help cushion the decline for the industrial sector.’

But there was a strong recommendation to steer clear of the residential rental sector, with only 11.6 per cent of respondents suggesting that now is the time to buy.

‘There are many owners whose units are completing in the coming 12 months. As supply outstrips demand, there will be intense competition, which will drive rents down,’ Mr Tan said.

The report also stated that the moment of truth has yet to arrive in the Asia-Pacific, indicating more gloom to come.

‘The biggest threat to Singapore, other than the squeeze on credit, is the seemingly generous pipeline of development projects which may be completed during a period of sagging interest from foreign investors,’ said Mr David Sandison, tax partner of PwC.

‘Apart from this, local players in retail and office space are also seeking to cut costs by downsizing and relocating to more affordable parts of the island.

‘Acceleration of government infrastructure projects and other measures aimed at buoying the economy should, however, be sufficient to stabilise the market.’

There was one bright spot in the report: Singapore maintained its second position from last year among 20 Asia-Pacific cities for investment prospects. Tokyo was first.

Still healthy demand for construction personnel

THE surge in local construction projects in these two years has catapulted the sector ahead of many others.

In 2007, construction demand rose to $24.5 billion, up sharply from $16.8 billion in 2006. This year, it is expected to soar to $30 billion.

Against the generally bleak backdrop, construction personnel across professional, technical, supervisory and tradesmen levels are still in demand.

New local entrants who join the industry can expect starting monthly salaries of $1,400 to $1,700 at tradesmen level, and up to $3,500 at the professional, managerial, executive and technical (PMET) level.

The Building and Construction Authority (BCA) has been actively engaging in public outreach programmes to promote careers in the construction sector.

‘It is timely for locals to consider construction-related job opportunities and contribute to the development of an excellent built environment,’ said Lam Siew Wah, deputy chief executive officer of BCA.

BCA has been working closely with the National Trades Union Congress (NTUC) and the Singapore Workforce Development Agency (WDA) through the Job Re-creation Programme to match locals to jobs in the industry.

At the BCA Academy, various funding schemes have also been put in place to help defray the training costs for new local entrants in built environment courses. Both new entrants and existing personnel seeking upgrading of skills can enrol in the spectrum of courses offered there.

In addition, the Construction Re-skilling for Employment (CORE) Plus Programmes have been incorporated into the Skills Programme for Upgrading and Resilience (SPUR), the recently launched $600 million government programme to upgrade the manpower capabilities of both companies and workers.

‘By including the courses under SPUR, we hope more companies can scale up the skill profile of their workers and build a competitive edge,’ said Chan Heng Kee, chief executive officer of WDA.

Added BCA’s Mr Lam: ‘Going forward, these efforts will go a long way in building up a core group of locals, who will lead and advance the construction workforce for the future development of Singapore’s built environment.’

Source : Business Times - 6 Dec 2008

Best Asia-Pac property bets

TOKYO, Singapore and Hong Kong have emerged tops in the Asia-Pacific in a recent ranking of cities with the best property investment prospects for 2009.

They were placed first, second and third respectively as investors shifted their attention from emerging cities to mature markets, the survey by America’s Urban Land Institute (ULI) and PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) showed. Shanghai, which was ranked first in last year’s survey, fell to fifth place this time around. Beijing fell from sixth to 12th place and Ho Chi Minh City from eighth to 13th.

Survey respondents said 2009 is the time to be ‘picky about markets and partners’, ULI and PwC said in the report, which was released here yesterday.

In recent years, many investors who had been elbowed out of deals in major Asian cities by core funds or highly leveraged private equity players sought refuge in secondary locations or products in an effort to find value. In today’s environment, however, investors are again focusing on prime assets in major locations.

At the same time, projects in secondary markets or even in less well-positioned prime areas are more likely to run into problems, especially as slowing growth lowers demand for commercial properties.

Respondents were also asked to rate cities according to their riskiness. Tokyo, Singapore and Sydney were the three markets seen as least risky.

But Singapore was ranked seventh for development prospects and has to reconcile itself to slower growth and less demand, the report said. Bangalore, Ho Chi Minh City and Mumbai were ranked the top three cities for development prospects.

In Singapore, the strongest buy and hold recommendations were for the hotel sector - 65 per cent of respondents advised holding, 24 per cent recommended buying and only 9 per cent suggested selling. The residential rental sector was also a strong ‘hold’ (65 per cent). But 23 per cent recommended selling and only 11 per cent advised buying.

Singapore’s office sector was rated a ‘hold’ by 54 per cent of respondents, while 23 per cent advised buying and 21 per cent recommended selling. For the industrial/distribution property sector, 52 per cent of respondents gave ‘hold’ recommendations, 34 per cent advised buying and 13 per cent said ’sell’.

The survey, based on 180 respondents ranging from global investors, property developers and brokers, looked at the investment and development prospects of 20 metropolitan markets in the Asia-Pacific region.

‘Asia shares the same liquidity crisis that the rest of the world is facing,’ said Stephen Blank, ULI’s senior resident fellow for finance. ‘Financial institutions - whether international or national, regional or local - are reluctant to extend credit as deleveraging reduces balance sheet lending capacity.’

And for Singapore, besides the credit squeeze, another problem is the seemingly generous pipeline of development projects which may be completed during a period of sagging interest from foreign business investors, said PwC tax partner David Sandison.

Source : Business Times - 6 Dec 2008

CBRE sets up real estate finance advisory services

CB Richard Ellis has launched a real estate finance advisory service in Asia, headquartered in Singapore, CBRE Singapore managing director Pauline Goh told BT in a recent interview.

The business, headed by former Societe Generale investment analyst Alan Dalgleish, will be particularly valuable for clients during the current global credit crunch, when many Asian developers are looking for capital partners.

‘Particularly in this environment, there is an opportunity to match the requirements of those who have got capital - and it’s not all doom and gloom; there are plenty of players with capital - against those people who find themselves needing capital,’ Mr Dalgleish says.

Says Ms Goh: ‘We are in touch with over 20 funds (from US, Europe and Middle East) interested in Asia broadly. We are in position to point them in the right direction, which markets to go for, and at which point in time. So we could act as middleman to put the company needing the capital with the capital. In Asia, particularly in places like China, there are plenty of developers needing capital and we have lots of funds interested in putting money in China,’ Ms Goh said.

Other aspects of the new service in Asia include providing due diligence on behalf of potential investors keen on investing in real estate markets as well as in property funds. ‘This is a good time as any to start offering this service in Asia, because this is when companies do really need help. And we also want to position ourselves so we are ready for any recovery in the market,’ Ms Goh said.

Mr Dalgleish reveals that despite unprecedented turmoil in financial markets in the past few months, his unit has already clinched a few mandates.

One involves a party that would like to set up a fund to invest in a South-east Asian country. This will be a single-country fund but investing in multiple sectors of the property market within the selected country. ‘So we’ll give advice on establishing the fund, asset allocation, valuations etc,’ Mr Dalgleish says.

Another client is a foreign group specialising in shopping mall assets that is looking to invest in China. ‘So we’re assisting them with finding not just single assets but a long-term partnership with a Chinese developer (of malls),’ he adds. ‘The other area within the real estate finance team is that we are trying to advice corporates on sale and leaseback deals, in a more sophisticated way. What we do is to take a consulting approach to the transaction and look at its impact on the seller’s balance sheet, ensuring it will be compliant with international accounting standards,’ says the 47-year-old father of four kids who’s been working in Asia for over 20 years and who enjoys cooking.

Source : Business Times - 6 Dec 2008

Friday, December 5, 2008

Asian developers offer biggest opportunities

Source : Today - 5 Dec 2008

ASIAN debt managers expect real estate developers and companies in China, South Korea and Australia to provide them with the most investment opportunities next year, an industry survey shows.
Economic recession, slowing consumer spending and shrinking bank lending indicate a growing number of Asia-Pacific companies will face difficulty refinancing debt next year, according to a survey of 100 hedge fund managers and proprietary trading bankers published by Debtwire yesterday.
“This will be a prolonged process of unwinding the 25-year bull market,” Singapore-based Robert Schmitz, head of restructuring for Asia with N M Rothschild & Sons, said in the report. “We have to be mindful that the bear market that started over a year ago could last about one-quarter to one-third the duration” of the bull market.
The debt refinancing risk for Asia-Pacific companies is becoming a “growing concern” as the global credit crisis worsens, Standard & Poor’s (S&P) said on Dec 2.
The region’s companies have US$368 billion ($562 billion) of rated debt maturing from the fourth quarter of this year to the end of 2011, led by Japan and Australia, S&P said. That includes US$113.9 billion due next year and US$10.9 billion owed by real estate companies.
Ninety-two per cent of survey respondents said they expect increased financial stress among Asian property companies next year, while 76 per cent expect more distress among financial companies and75 per cent among industrial and chemicals companies, the report shows.
Telecommunications companies and utilities are expected to have the smallest rise in distressed debt.
More than half of respondents said rising defaults will emerge in India in the next two years, while about a third forecast increasing corporate distress in South Korea as Asia’s fourth-largest economy wrestles with a falling currency and difficulty borrowing overseas.
“Going into their downturn, Korea looks like Detroit in the ’70s but without the good music,” Mr Scott Bache, Hong Kong-based partner for Clifford Chance LLP, said in the report.
Real estate developers account for nine out of 13 Chinese borrowers that are financially stressed, and owe half the companies’ US$16 billion in combined debt, according to the report.
In Japan, 14 of 25 companies in default are developers, while in Australia, US$14.5 billion of a total US$32.5 billion in stressed and defaulted debt is related to real estate.

Dubai rethinks huge ‘city within city’ plan

Developer cites change in investor demands as reason for the retreat

A newly created Dubai developer that unveiled a US$95 billion real estate project just two months ago is reviewing its plans in the light of the economic downturn.

The retreat comes as a widely watched report showed property prices in the fast-growing Gulf city- state slowed considerably in the three months to September, ahead of an expected decline later this year.

In reassessing its development plans, Meraas Development said on Wednesday that it has ’seen that investor demands have changed’ and that it must ‘quickly respond to meet these market needs’.

The developer, launched by the government of Dubai in late September, said it is re-examining its business strategy and the rollout of its flagship Jumeira Gardens project slated for a central part of the city.

‘In a worldwide economic downturn, any corporate must analyse the market and ensure its business strategy is aligned to make the most of new opportunities, as well as ensure risk-management strategies take account of the new financial landscape with a focus on new market and investor demands,’ the company said.

Meraas announced the 350 billion dirham (S$124.7 billion) Jumeira Gardens at a property expo in October.

The company said at the time that work had already begun on the development, which was advertised as a ‘city within a city’ that would include one of the world’s tallest buildings and take 12 years to complete.

Meraas said it expects to have more details on the project by the beginning of 2009.

The developer is a division of Meraas Holding, whose private equity division, Meraas Capital LLC, joined real estate investment trust Boston Properties Inc and other investors in acquiring the General Motors Building in New York City for about US$2.8 billion in June.

Separately on Wednesday, real estate consultancy Colliers International said its index of Dubai home prices grew 5 per cent year on year from July to September - down from 43 per cent in the first quarter and 16 per cent in the second quarter.

Ian Albert, regional director for consultancy services at Colliers, said he expects the next round of figures would show a decline in the last three months of the year in large part because of the liquidity squeeze caused by the global financial crisis.

‘It is clear to us that the landscape has changed since the end of September,’ Mr Albert said.

Last month, an HSBC Holdings plc report found home prices on Dubai’s secondary market fell month to month for the first time since the emirate began allowing foreigners to buy property in 2002.

Source : Business Times - 5 Dec 2008

Eyes on demand as govt keeps land supply in check

Analysts hope for measures to boost buying, such as stamp duty rebates

THE government yesterday kept the lid on the supply of state land for development. All eyes in the market now are on what measures the state will come up with to stimulate property demand.

The Ministry of National Development (MND) has decided not to add any new sites to the Government Land Sales (GLS) Programme for first-half 2009.

The slate for the first six months of next year - comprising entirely reserve list sites, as previously announced - consists of a total 38 sites. These comprise 37 plots that are being carried over from the H2 2008 reserve list and the unsold executive condo site in Punggol that had been tendered out under the confirmed list of H2 2008.

These 38 land parcels can potentially yield about 7,920 private homes, 512,000 sq metres gross floor area (GFA) of commercial space and 5,160 hotel rooms.

In formulating its policy, the ministry took into account the current economic uncertainties and noted that the global economic outlook is likely to remain weak in 2009 and this would have an impact on Singapore’s economy, including the property market.

Giving an update on land supply in January-June 2009 from government agencies, outside the GLS Programme, MND said there will be no new supply of private homes and a reduced supply of commercial space (this will only entail projects meant to achieve strategic economic or development goals).

The H1 2009 supply from this source will comprise about 40,000 sq metres GFA of commercial space and 240 hotel rooms - smaller than the land supply for 20 private homes, 143,000 sq m of commercial space and 240 hotel rooms outside the GLS Programme for H2 2008.

Welcoming the latest announcement from MND, a spokesman for the Real Estate Developers Association of Singapore said: ‘This further confirms to the market the authorities are mindful of market conditions at the moment and (we) do not need to add further uncertainties.’

Knight Frank director Nicholas Mak says yesterday’s announcement gives the market an opportunity to adjust to a new supply-demand equilibrium.

DTZ executive director Ong Choon Fah notes that most of the residential sites in the reserve list are in locations suitable for private housing developments catering to HDB upgraders. ‘If developers’ sales in these segments pick up, they have the choice of applying for such sites to be released from the reserve list for tender.’

Agreeing, CB Richard Ellis executive director Li Hiaw Ho said: ‘As home prices are expected to decline further in 2009, developers may be able to pick up the better-located sites in the reserve list - such as the ones at Bishan Street 14 and Dakota Crescent - at attractive prices. It is likely that most residential activity will be focused on the lower-end of the market, where prices will be more affordable.’

However, analysts are more keen on some demand-side announcements from government.

JP Morgan analyst Chris Gee said: ‘It’s less of a supply side situation right now. The issue is what can be done to help stimulate demand. All eyes are turning to the Budget statement in January.’ He reckons temporary exemptions on stamp duty and property taxes could be possible measures.

Credo Real Estate managing director Karamjit Singh too argues that ‘the issues at hand relate to investment sentiments and fear of further downward slide in prices, which is why (home) buyers have been holding back and prices have declined’.

‘It would help immensely if buyers could be incentivised to purchase, through measures such as a temporary suspension of stamp duty and the reintroduction of the deferred payment scheme, for example,’ Mr Singh added.

Source : Business Times - 5 Dec 2008

Shenzhen pricier for expats than S’pore

CHINESE cities such as Shenzhen and Guangzhou have surged past Singapore when it comes to expatriate living costs, a survey has shown.

Although Singapore has traditionally ranked as one of the more expensive Asian countries for expats, it dropped three notches this year to 12th place in a study by ECA International.

The strong yen made Tokyo the dearest city in Asia for expats, followed by three other Japanese cities - Yokohama, Nagoya and Kobe. ‘Goods and services in Tokyo were 43 per cent more expensive than in Singapore in September 2007 and this gap has since widened to 68 per cent,’ ECA said.

Traditional frontrunners such as Hong Kong, Beijing, Shanghai were again ahead of Singapore in this year’s survey. And the appreciation of the yuan, coupled with soaring inflation in China, lifted Shenzhen and Guangzhou past Singapore for the first time.

‘Beijing’s movement has been driven by both the strength of the renminbi and persistent inflation, which we have also seen in other Chinese locations,’ said Lee Quanne, ECA’s general manager for Asia.

Globally, Singapore is the 95th most expensive city for expats, up 27 places from 2007 as the Sing dollar appreciated.

In contrast, Korean cities have become cheaper for expats due to the weakening won, which has dropped 48 per cent against the US dollar since September. Seoul topped ECA’s Asian rankings in 2007 but dropped to 11th place this time round.

Human resource consultancy ECA conducts its cost-of-living survey every March and September by tracking 125 consumer goods and services commonly consumed by expatriates across 370 locations worldwide. These include food and clothing costs but do not cover big-ticket items such as housing, utilities and cars, as companies tend to allocate separate compensation for such spending, according to ECA. Multinational firms often use ECA’s findings as a yardstick for calculating expatriate remuneration packages and allowances.

Angola’s capital Luanda remains the world’s most expensive city for expats.

Source : Business Times - 5 Dec 2008

Expats’ living costs rising faster in HK than S’pore

WHILE living costs for expatriates in Singapore are rising, they are going up even faster in regional rival Hong Kong.

It is now 15 per cent more expensive to live in Hong Kong than in Singapore, according to the latest Cost of Living Survey released by human resource data firm ECA International.

This is a bigger difference than last year, when the cost of living in Hong Kong was 12 per cent higher than here.

Globally, Singapore has shot up 35 spots from last year’s survey to rank as the 95th most expensive city to live in this year. Hong Kong is at 33.

In Asia, Singapore is at No.12 while Hong Kong is ranked sixth.

The new figures show Beijing to be 15 per cent more expensive to live in than Singapore. The Chinese capital ranks as the fifth most expensive Asian city, and No. 31 overall.

ECA carries out its survey twice a year to help multinational companies calculate remuneration packages and living costs for expatriates.

The study compares a basket of 125 consumer goods and services commonly bought by expats in over 370 locations and measures these items against inflation, availability of goods and exchange rates.

That is why the Angolan capital Luanda is the most expensive location for foreigners for the second year running, as certain items typically purchased by expats are not readily available there.

ECA said the wild currency fluctuations caused by tumultuous global economic events this year contributed significantly to how a country ranked.

The strengthening of the yen meant Tokyo has reclaimed its position as Asia’s most expensive city. It was second after Seoul last year.

It also meant that three other Japanese cities - Yokohama, Nagoya and Kobe - joined the ranks of the top 10 most expensive cities globally.

Meanwhile, Korean locations have seen the largest relative fall in cost of living due to the depreciation of the won, which fell more than 48 per cent against the US dollar between September last year and last month, said ECA.

Mr Lee Quane, general manager of ECA Asia, said research shows most companies pay expats in their home currency while they are on assignment, which could mean lower purchasing power in unfavourable exchange rate environments.

‘Companies which split pay between the employee’s home and host countries will be much better equipped to ride out the currency volatility,’ he added.

Source : Straits Times - 5 Dec 2008

Costs up, but S’pore far cheaper than rivals

The Republic is 12th most expensive city in Asia

WITH inflation and fluctuating exchange rates, Singapore has leapt 27 places up the global rankings of the world’s most expensive cities to live in. The consolation for the Republic is, its regional rivals have seen costs balloon far more astronomically.

Even as it jumped up to 95th place worldwide, Singapore’s Asian ranking rose just one notch up to 12th place - with consumer goods here about 15 per cent cheaper than in Hong Kong, according to findings by human resources firm ECA International.

These goods, which include food items and services, are also 68 per cent cheaper here than in Tokyo, while Beijing is now three times more expensive than Singapore, compared to last year.

Will all this make Singapore a more attractive option for expatriates and international companies setting up base here?

ECA International Asia general manager Lee Quane said that Singapore thought so. “Companies here will have to pay a higher cost of living allowance to keep pace with rising costs, but they would have to pay an even higher allowance elsewhere in Asia,” he said.

In the coming months, Mr Quane expects inflation here to hold steady, and the Singapore dollar value to depreciate as the US dollar strengthens. “I don’t see cost of living becoming more expensive here, but it won’t become cheaper either,” he said.

Singapore International Chamber of Commerce chief executive Phillip Overmyer said multinational companies were now “trying to understand what would happen after the economic crisis”, and how to serve emerging markets after the turmoil dies down.

“With the lower cost of living in Singapore, it will encourage companies to put its analysts here, such as market researchers and R&D personnel,” he said. “It would support companies to use Singapore as regional headquarters for Asia.”

This could take six to eight months to happen, as companies would need to assess their financial position before focussing on Asia’s domestic market. For now, rising costs would spell bad news for expats as companies are reportedly giving out less generous remuneration packages.

The Singapore expat community, said Mr Overmyer, is different than it was ten years ago, when the expats held top positions in companies.

“Increasingly, the expats tend to be here for the learning experience and in mid-level positions with less generous packages,” he said. This group would now be “struggling a little more”, he added. “But if Singapore remains relatively less expensive, we would still be more attractive.”

ECA’s ranking was compiled using surveys done in March and September and using November exchange rates, over 370 territories.

MOST EXPENSIVE IN ASIA

1. Tokyo (global rank: 2)

5. Beijing (31)

6. Hong Kong (33)

8. Taipei (76)

11. Seoul (90)

12. Singapore (95)

Source : Today - 5 Dec 2008

Asian developers offer biggest opportunities

ASIAN debt managers expect real estate developers and companies in China, South Korea and Australia to provide them with the most investment opportunities next year, an industry survey shows.

Economic recession, slowing consumer spending and shrinking bank lending indicate a growing number of Asia-Pacific companies will face difficulty refinancing debt next year, according to a survey of 100 hedge fund managers and proprietary trading bankers published by Debtwire yesterday.

“This will be a prolonged process of unwinding the 25-year bull market,” Singapore-based Robert Schmitz, head of restructuring for Asia with N M Rothschild & Sons, said in the report. “We have to be mindful that the bear market that started over a year ago could last about one-quarter to one-third the duration” of the bull market.

The debt refinancing risk for Asia-Pacific companies is becoming a “growing concern” as the global credit crisis worsens, Standard & Poor’s (S&P) said on Dec 2.

The region’s companies have US$368 billion ($562 billion) of rated debt maturing from the fourth quarter of this year to the end of 2011, led by Japan and Australia, S&P said. That includes US$113.9 billion due next year and US$10.9 billion owed by real estate companies.

Ninety-two per cent of survey respondents said they expect increased financial stress among Asian property companies next year, while 76 per cent expect more distress among financial companies and75 per cent among industrial and chemicals companies, the report shows.

Telecommunications companies and utilities are expected to have the smallest rise in distressed debt.

More than half of respondents said rising defaults will emerge in India in the next two years, while about a third forecast increasing corporate distress in South Korea as Asia’s fourth-largest economy wrestles with a falling currency and difficulty borrowing overseas.

“Going into their downturn, Korea looks like Detroit in the ’70s but without the good music,” Mr Scott Bache, Hong Kong-based partner for Clifford Chance LLP, said in the report.

Real estate developers account for nine out of 13 Chinese borrowers that are financially stressed, and owe half the companies’ US$16 billion in combined debt, according to the report.

In Japan, 14 of 25 companies in default are developers, while in Australia, US$14.5 billion of a total US$32.5 billion in stressed and defaulted debt is related to real estate.

Source : Today - 5 Dec 2008

Half of Sands’ retail space taken up

ABOUT half of the retail space at the Marina Bay Sands integrated resort has already been taken up, and the stores will feature over 30 brands that are new to Singapore.

The $5.4 billion Marina Bay Sands project is under construction now, and will have 800,000 sq ft of retail space for about 300 stores when it is completed in 2010.

“We will have a lot of fashion-forward, leading edge retail … It will be a mixture Predominantly European because that’s where the high-end fashion mainly comes from but it will be a mixture of European, some American brands, some Japanese, some Korean,” said Mr David Sylvester, vice president, retail development Asia, Las Vegas Sands, the parent company of Marina Bay Sands.

Mr Sylvester, who was speaking at a retail conference in Singapore, said there are no plans yet to adjust rents to match the slowing economy, and that the company remains positive about the future.

“Obviously there’s been a lot of concerns about the economic environment at the moment, but everybody has been very positive on MBS (Marina Bay Sands) because by the time we open, we are talking about end of 2009. We got to think that things will turn around by then,” he said.

The retail component of the resort is due to be opened in two phases the luxury stores will open at the end of next year, with the rest ready to do business in 2010.

More details of the retail concepts will be announced early next year.

Competition in the retail sector is expected to be stiff next year, with four new malls ION, Orchard Central, Mandarin Gallery and 313@Somerset coming up along Orchard Road, Singapore’s prime retail belt.

But Mr Sylvester said that Sands’ retail space, which is about 20 per cent smaller than Singapore’s largest shopping mall at VivoCity, will complement rather than compete with offerings there.

Source : Today - 5 Dec 2008

Government offers fewer land sales sites

The move will help ease fears of a supply glut next year

NO NEW sites have been added to the Government’s land sales programme for the first half of next year, an anticipated move designed to tame fears of a supply glut in an already weak market.

Only sites on the reserve list will be up for sale, and almost all of these are carried over from this year. The amount of commercial space will also be reduced.

‘The global economic outlook is likely to remain weak in 2009 and this would have an impact on Singapore’s economy, including the property market,’ said the Ministry of National Development, which releases the sales programme in June and December every year.

Knight Frank’s director of research and consultancy, Mr Nicholas Mak, said the programme announced yesterday reflects government efforts to give the market a chance to adjust to a new supply and demand equilibrium and to lessen the pressure of a glut.

Much of the announcement was flagged in a special statement made on Oct 31, when the Government said it will suspend outright land sales in the first half of next year, leaving only reserve list sites for sale.

It went further yesterday by limiting office space and ruling that no new plots of land will be made available as response to recent tenders was poor, said Mr Mak.

Also, no new supply of private residential units from other government agencies will be made available. It placed about 20 such units on the market in the second half of this year.

Developers prefer reserve list sites as the land goes up for tender only if a minimum bid acceptable to the Government is submitted.

There will be 38 such sites on offer next year, with 37 carried over from the reserve list for the second half of this year. The remaining one is the unsold executive condominium site in Punggol.

That site was from the confirmed list, which meant that it was for outright sale, but there was no demand when it went to market last month.

There are 18 residential sites, 10 for hotels, six commercial plots, three white sites and a commercial/residential site.

The property market has been hit by weak buying interest and a credit crunch. Private home sales are at a standstill as buyers await more price falls.

Developers have also been withholding launches, adding to the stockpile of potential houses, said Mr Mak, who expects ‘very few’ residential sites to attract buying interest next year.

However, Credo Real Estate managing director Karamjit Singh said supply is not much of a problem as there are still buyers around.

‘The problem is buyers’ lack of confidence. If the current low sales volume carries into the next year, there is the fear of a deep plunge in prices. The Government should do something soon to stimulate demand,’ said Mr Singh.

The Government statement yesterday said that its reserve list system provides ‘greater flexibility to the market’ to adjust to the economic conditions.

As housing prices are expected to fall further next year, developers may be able to pick up the better-located sites - in Bishan Street 14 and Dakota Crescent - at attractive prices, said CBRE Research executive director Li Hiaw Ho.

‘It is likely that most residential activity will be focused on the lower end of the market where prices will be more affordable,’ he said, adding that likely launches in the first half of next year include leasehold condos in Boon Lay Way, Elias Road, Simei Street 4 and West Coast Crescent.

The supply of commercial space for the first half of next year has been cut from 143,000 sq m to 40,000 sq m. Transitional office sites have been reduced.

The new land sales programme also offers slightly fewer hotel rooms.

Shadow office space grabs the spotlight

Companies trying to sub-let excess space as they streamline operations

AS BANKS and other organisations look at scaling back their operations, some are trying to sub-let office space that they no longer need.

Some 200,000 sq ft of such space may already be on the market, although part of it may be available only next year. The phenomenon - which some call shadow space - started to emerge in October, industry players say.

Knight Frank director of business space (office) Agnes Tay forecasts that about 400,000 to 500,000 sq ft of shadow office space may be introduced between Q4 2008 and end-2009, or an average of 80,000 sq ft to 100,000 sq ft per quarter.

However, another office leasing veteran said: ‘It may be far easier to assess the situation in about half a year. By then, the right-sizing, job attrition and the office cycle would be far more advanced.’

Shadow space also emerged during the last office slump. According to CB Richard Ellis research reports, it amounted to more than one million sq ft as at the end of 2002.

Another consultant, Jones Lang LaSalle’s regional director and head of markets Chris Archibold, says that while subleasing has ‘negative connotations in the short term, it’s a good strategy in the medium to long term, as it builds flexibility into office space management, allowing businesses to expand fast when the current slowdown turns around’.

‘Given that Singapore is positioned as a regional hub, our view is that Singapore will be less impacted than other cities in Asia. However, we do expect to see some subleasing activity over the next few quarters, but it is impossible to pinpoint exactly how much space will be released,’ he added.

HL Bank, Citibank and DBS are among the tenants known in the market to be looking to sublet excess space. Their ranks are expected to grow in the coming quarters as restructuring efforts at banks take effect.

Citibank is said to be considering subletting at least 60,000 sq ft of office space. More than half of this is understood to be at Tampines Plaza and the rest in the Central Business District, including Millenia and Centennial towers in the Marina area.

DBS is said to be looking for tenants for space occupied by its HR department at PWC Building and apparently has smaller pockets of space available at Equity Plaza, Raffles City, 6 Raffles Quay and Haw Par Centre.

The attraction to potential sub-tenants keen on taking over such shadow space is that they may be able to secure space at attractive rentals below current market rates from tenants who inked headleases with the building owners last year or earlier at rents below current values. The space may also come pre-fitted, saving the subtenant such costs.

Of course, the shadow space situation is not following any fixed template. HL Bank, for instance, is believed to be keen to sublet two floors at UIC Building at a discount. The bank is said to have inked its lease with the Shenton Way property’s landlord, United Industrial Corporation (UIC), for about 20,000 sq ft earlier this year, when it had planned to move out of Tung Centre at Collyer Quay.

Industry watchers reckon HL Bank could be prepared to shave off around $2 psf in the monthly rentals of $8 psf and $10 psf it is paying UIC for its two floors.

Besides tenants wanting to sublet excess space, another reason shadow space emerges is when companies try to pre-terminate their leases with landlords, perhaps because they are shutting down or moving their operations to cheaper locations. Because such tenants are still liable to pay the agreed rental for the remaining duration of their leases, they sometimes try to sublet their space.

Property agents say subletting deals are best done with the knowledge and support of the building’s owner. ‘Sometimes the residual lease on the excess space a tenant is willing to sublet may be pretty short, say a year or even less; so the new tenant will want to negotiate a fresh follow-up lease with the landlord to dovetail with the expiry of the residual lease on the shadow space,’ a property consultant said.

Source : Business Times - 5 Dec 2008

Adding quality to condo life

High-end properties are including lifestyle features such as art galleries, private dining rooms and party pads on their premises, report AUDREY PHOON and AMANDA DE GUZMAN

OLYMPIC-SIZED pools tiled in the finest Italian marble and gyms filled with state-of-the-art equipment may yet be an unheard-of extravagance for some, but in the world of ultra-luxe condominiums they’re no longer enough to lure discerning residents to their polished doorsteps.

Given the current economic climate, high-end properties have been looking to add even more value to their spaces with the inclusion of other lifestyle features such as art galleries, private dining rooms and party pads on their premises. Indeed, it seems like these new developments are virtually trying to outdo each other in offering such added perks.

As one source puts it, ‘Demand for high-end property is definitely slowing. But these added facilities, which were first introduced to add value to properties when prices were rising, don’t cost very much in the grand scheme of things. So it’s even more important at a time like this that they be included to offer value to buyers.’

Lifestyle needs

According to the executive director of property consultancy DTZ, Ong Choon Fah, the downturn has meant that most of the people who are buying for investment purposes ‘are being very cautious’.

‘Most of the people buying now are living in the apartments themselves. That’s why it is very important that the complex suits their lifestyle needs,’ she says.

Take JBE Properties’ newly completed The Luxe on Handy Road, where an art gallery on the ground floor allows residents to browse the works of artists from all over the globe and purchase them if they wish.

In turn, Far East Organization’s Orchard Scotts development at Anthony Road and Orchard Turn Development’s yet-to-be-completed The Orchard Residences both have wine and cigar rooms where residents can store their bottles and cigars in a temperature-controlled environment.

Orchard Scotts also has two private dining rooms that are fully equipped with Western and Asian cooking equipment - a feature that has quickly become common in other luxe new properties such as Ferrell Residences (by hedge fund firm Ferrell), The Sea View (Wheelock Properties) and Nassim Park Residences (UOL Group). Not to be outdone, The Orchard Residences has taken it up another notch: it will offer a private party house on-site, the first for residential developments in Singapore.

‘This feature of The Orchard Residences will provide residents with a unique venue for their private parties and events,’ says the chief executive officer of Orchard Turn Developments, Soon Su Lin. The party house, she adds, will have its own living room, dining room, kitchen, barbecue pit and a dedicated private swimming pool, ’so that residents have the exclusive privilege and comfort of entertaining in a ’second home’. Of the expanding range of luxury facilities being offered by luxury developments, Ms Soon explains: ‘We want to ensure that our high net worth residents can enjoy city living without compromising on their quality lifestyle.’

Adds DTZ’s Mrs Ong: ‘As we live in a more globalised world, people are starting to appreciate the finer things in life much more. Now, buying a private property is certainly a lot more aspirational; you aren’t just buying bricks and mortar, you are actually buying a lifestyle.’

Ferrell’s executive director Jeanna Chan notes that offering these additional, exclusive entertainment options to residents ‘provides more complete living through attention to detail, from quality finish to identifying a need for a private lifestyle’. They also serve to extend residents’ living space - the dining area concept, for example, is ‘growing in popularity and becoming essential in a prime district where city living is crowded’, adds Ms Chan.

That factor is particularly appreciated by Orchard Scotts resident Junny Lee. ‘The dining area in my complex gives me much more flexibility,’ says the property investment analyst, who lives in a two-bedroom apartment in the development. ‘I can hold functions for more than 50 people if I want to. It makes your living space larger than it actually is.’

Facilities such as this have become ‘essential’ to him, he says, adding that while he initially chose the apartment because of the layout, he has found that these perks ‘enhance your social life and your quality of life as a whole. Having space is priceless. It’s good because it’s personalised space, but the costs are shared’.

Waterfront facilities

Apart from adding features to their properties that are targeted specifically at the audience they hope to draw, property developers have also let the facilities they include be dictated by their locations.

The Sea View, for instance, has converted a neo-classical bungalow located on its site into a huge function room with a party lawn. ‘Whenever an opportunity arises, we hope to create an enhanced living environment for the residents,’ says director of Wheelock Properties Tan Bee Kim. ‘The Sea View is a good example. We saw the potential of the bungalow located at the site and conserved it, turning it into a grand clubhouse for the development.’

Meanwhile, those who choose to live at Reflections at Keppel Bay will enjoy sailing lessons and boat charter services, among other things, apart from a view of the ocean.

‘High-end developers are seeing merit in offering real value-add in terms of premium quality, facilities and finishings which would be appreciated by tenants and homebuyers,’ says Augustine Tan, chief executive officer of Singapore Residential, Keppel Land. That’s why folks living at Keppel Bay will get the full waterfront lifestyle experience, from marina playground to ‘an exclusive twinning association with Nongsa Point Marina & Resort in Batam’, he shares.

The broadened lifestyle-experience scope also helps to enhance the exclusivity of these complexes, which DTZ’s Ms Ong believes adds to their desirability.

‘Only a certain group will be eligible to make use of all these perks, and that is part of the attraction,’ she says. ‘The people living here will probably all be members at the same exclusive country clubs, but it will be nice for them to enjoy the same facilities in their own backyard.’

One property expert feels that these increasingly luxurious developments are essential to Singapore’s progress towards becoming a truly global city.

‘Talent gets attracted to a place where you can not only earn big bucks but also to a place where there is life outside of work,’ she says. ‘The quality of life represented by these properties goes beyond just bricks and mortar. To have a world-class city, that is exactly what you need.’

These sentiments are shared by Chia Boon Kuah, chief operating officer of property sales and executive director of Far East Organization. ‘The fact that Orchard Scotts’ dining area is always fully booked underscores that we have been able to connect to our residents’ lifestyle aspirations,’ he says.

Right now, that lifestyle may seem to be slipping from the fingers of potential buyers - but for those still staying in the market, it’s a lifestyle worth waiting for.

Source : Business Times - 5 Dec 2008

BCA initiates plan to strengthen local construction sector

The Building and Construction Authority (BCA) is launching initiatives to attract locals to join the construction sector and to strengthen skills at all levels of the sector’s workforce.

These initiatives are part of a masterplan that is being drafted to build a competent, productive and progressive labour force for the local construction industry.

Announcing the masterplan on Friday at a BCA Academy graduation event, Senior Minister of State for National Development Grace Fu said Singapore’s construction sector is holding up under the effects of the current economic slowdown.

But she said construction demand is expected to come down in the next two years and the industry must make adjustments to adapt.

One of the key initiatives will see the BCA working with the National Trades Union Congress (NTUC) and the Work Development Agency (WDA) to reclaim suitable jobs in the industry for locals.

In particular, the Construction Re-Skilling for Employment (CORE) scheme will subsidise skills training for new local entrants in key construction trades.

A new scheme called CoreTrade will also be launched next year to build up a core pool of competent and experienced tradesmen and foremen to help construction workers progress into supervisory positions.

Source : Channel NewsAsia - 5 Dec 2008

Tokyo ranked as Asia-Pacific’s top property investment city

Tokyo has been ranked as the top property investment city in the Asia-Pacific, according to a survey by Washington-based Urban Land Institute and PricewaterhouseCoopers.

But while investors see plenty of opportunities in the regional property sector, financing may prove to be a key challenge in the coming year.

Together with Tokyo, Singapore, Hong Kong, Bangalore and Shanghai round up the list for the top five property investment cities in the Asia-Pacific.

And they have been seeing growing interest from overseas investors in recent years.

But market watchers said that it may not be that easy for everyone interested to get into the market.

Stephen Blank, senior fellow, Finance, Urban Land Institute, said: “Borrowers are going to find themselves, in some instances, with loans that are so-called ‘upside down’ financially. They can’t be re-financed because the value of the properties declined below the collateral necessary to support the loan.”

Speaking at an Asia Pacific Real Estate conference - organised by PricewaterhouseCoopers - in Singapore on Friday, market watchers said re-financing may be the catalyst that will bring the global financial crisis home to regional real estate markets in 2009.

According to the survey by Urban Land Institute and PricewaterhouseCoopers, Asian banks have become increasingly selective in their lending, despite having sufficient liquidity.

Lending rates are seen rising by at least one percentage point.

And banks are also expected to be willing to fund only up to 65 per cent of projects, down from previous highs of 80-90 per cent.

According to the survey, Singapore ranks among the top 5 cities in Asia for property investment opportunities.

But market watchers said Singapore’s property market faces risks of slower growth and falling demand.

David Sandison, tax partner, PricewaterhouseCoopers, said: “What we are seeing now is a pipeline of supply that is likely to come on towards the end of next year, and dwindling demand. So, the real crossroads are going to be met towards the end of 2009 when that supply comes on and the demand may well not be there.”

According to some estimates, Asian property sales have already fallen 68 per cent year-on-year in the third quarter.

Source : Channel NewsAsia - 5 Dec 2008

Thursday, December 4, 2008

Developers in China scramble to raise cash

Source : Business Times - 4 Dec 2008

Suffering from a slumping housing market, Chinese developers are scrambling to find new ways to keep the cash flowing in and creditors at bay, with anything from factories to timeshares in their sights.
An oversupply of new apartments in an economic downturn, and the lingering effects of government steps to stamp out rampant property speculation have sent home sales and prices tumbling.
Capital markets are closed, and loans have dried up.
‘Banks give you an umbrella when it’s sunny and want it back when it’s raining,’ said Li Xiaodong, chairman of J&J Assets Management, whose US$300 million fund invests with property firms.
‘So you have to choose products that are more suitable for the market at the moment,’ he advised developers at a conference in Beijing. ‘There’s money out there, but there’s no confidence.’
In a five-year boom, China’s developers grew quickly and notched up huge profit margins, often of as much as 50 per cent, as they built on land accumulated cheaply and sold apartments in a fast rising market.
But many who bought land at a 2007 price peak are suffering now, with sales down by as much as half from last year. The country’s biggest developer, China Vanke, has slashed prices by a third, and others have gone further. And now they are looking away from housing. Beijing-based Antaeus Group is selling rooms at Hainan island resorts, giving buyers stays of 30 days each year and a share of room rates.
‘A lot of movie stars and real estate developers are buying,’ said the firm’s chairman, Zhang Baoquan. ‘We need to survive the winter,’ he said of the market downturn. ‘But once spring comes, demand will be released.’
Shanghai-listed developer Vantone Estate aims to spend three billion yuan (S$667.2 million) on industrial property in the next couple of years, according to Wu Dongwei, general manager at the unit responsible for the venture.
His first deal, which is still being negotiated, is for a factory in Wuxi that will be bought and leased back to a television maker faced with slowing exports.
‘We’re trying to diversify,’ Mr Wu told Reuters. ‘There are a lot of companies that bought a lot of land very cheaply, or for zero because local governments gave it to them,’ he added. ‘But now is a very bad time, so they’re trying to get more cash in and divesting assets.’
Holding investment properties usually produces much lower returns on assets than building homes because equity is tied up for much longer.
But Hong Kong developers have used the tactic well to smooth earnings, in a volatile property market. Office and retail rents are typically renegotiated every three years, while industrial and warehouse property leases can last a decade.

Tokyo offers top investment prospects

Source : Business Times - 4 Dec 2008


It moves up to first place in survey after being rated third in the past two years
Tokyo takes the top spot for next year’s real estate investment prospects among big Asian cities, with many foreign investors seeking opportunities in Japan’s beleaguered property market, a survey showed yesterday.
Tokyo moved up to the first place after being rated third in the past two years, while Shanghai dropped to the fifth from last year’s top slot, the survey conducted by US research institute Urban Land Institute and PricewaterhouseCoopers showed.
The survey, based on 180 respondents ranging from global investors, property developers and brokers, was conducted between the middle of August and October.
Ho Chi Minh City was ranked the best market for office properties, followed by Tokyo, Mumbai, Shanghai and Bangalore.
Vietnam’s former capital city was also rated on top for retail and apartment residential property, the study showed.
The strongest ‘buy’ and ‘hold’ recommendations for Tokyo were in the office property sector, where 46 per cent of respondents placed ‘buy’ and 43 per cent gave ‘hold’ ratings, said the survey for hundreds of investors, developers and lenders.
PricewaterhouseCoopers’ partner Raymond Kahn said in a statement that foreign investors remain interested in Tokyo even under the current weak property market conditions. While some investors are finding opportunities, however, the number of transactions has fallen significantly and there is still some disconnect between buyers and sellers, Mr Kahn wrote.
As for Tokyo’s residential property sector, 28 per cent of respondents placed ’sell’ with 39 per cent rating ‘hold’, the survey showed. Offices took top ranking for both investment and development, among property sectors most promising in the Asia-Pacific region, the survey showed.
A Reuters poll of Asia property market last month showed that Tokyo’s top-notch grade A office rents and capital values are seen slipping by up to 5 per cent by the end of 2009, but better placed to weather the regional downturn expected to be led by Hong Kong and Singapore.

Egypt, Brazil among top picks of property tycoon Sam Zell

Source : Business Times - 4 Dec 2008

Brazil, Egypt, Mexico and China remain some of the best places for property investments as the global financial crisis drags on, real estate mogul Sam Zell said on Tuesday.
Those countries have a shortage of affordable housing and infrastructures that support foreign investment, Mr Zell, chairman of Equity Group Investments LLC, said at a forum in New York sponsored by the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton business school.
Brazil is self-sufficient, has a strong pool of skilled professionals and otherwise unlimited resources, he said. The country also offers scale, he said, citing same-store growth for Equity Group Investments- owned malls of 12 per cent over the past year.
In April, Mr Zell said Brazil’s biggest mall operator was seeing retail sales growth of 10 per cent annually.
‘If you look at all of the facts, I don’t think there is a better environment in all the world than Brazil,’ said Mr Zell, who has suggested the country could surpass China in economic might in 30 years.
Similar conditions hold true in Egypt where ‘there is an enormous shortage of housing’, he said.
In Brazil and Mexico, funding for housing has been unaffected by the turmoil in capital markets that has frozen or dampened housing elsewhere, he said.
Mr Zell said he is also investing in low-cost housing in China, where results have been ’so far so good’. Much of the financial crisis that has taken a toll on confidence stems from demand in the United States and Europe that ‘wasn’t real’, supported by leverage, he said. True demand, such as that seen in Egypt, will have to re-emerge to lead any recovery elsewhere, he said.
‘Where is (the market) going to recover? It starts with demand,’ he said. ‘Where demand overcomes the environment.’
Countries to avoid include Japan, which has a shrinking population, and India, where licensing and ‘bureaucracy beyond belief’ discourages foreign investment, he said.
He also stays away from Russia where tax authorities could literally steal companies from their owners, and from Turkey, where he fears the authorities could use the press against foreign investors.
In the US, the biggest issue is a lack of confidence that has spread beyond the sub-prime mortgages that triggered the crisis, he said.
A drumbeat of negative news from companies, such as General Electric Co’s announcement on Tuesday that fourth-quarter profit would be at the low end of forecasts, adds to the deficit in confidence, he said.
‘When you don’t have confidence, nothing good happens,’ he said.

Manhattan awash in open office space

Source : Business Times - 4 Dec 2008

Finance firms giving up space as they downsize, picture could get worse
Last year, when the New York real estate market was still frothy, large blocks of office space were hard to come by. Not anymore.
Almost 16 million square feet is currently listed as available in large blocks in 68 office buildings in Manhattan, according to Colliers ABR, a commercial brokerage firm. That is nearly double the space available a year ago, both in terms of the number of large office blocks - which in New York usually means 100,000 sq ft or more - and in terms of total square feet.
Those figures are widely expected to go much higher, said Robert L Sammons, the managing director of research for Colliers ABR. He said it was difficult to get a handle on exactly how much space financial companies alone might put back onto the Manhattan office market over the next year or so.
‘Honestly, I don’t think any of these financial firms knows how this is going to play out,’ he said. ‘They are trying to figure out how many people they will need on staff, and in some cases how they are going to stay in business.’
Pending layoffs in the financial industry certainly account for some of the space on the market. But there are other factors. Some companies are moving into new headquarters - which were first planned years ago - while others are disposing of real estate that they came into through acquisitions.
By far the biggest increase in availability has been in the sublease market. Currently, at least 16 large office blocks are being marketed for sublease in Manhattan, up from just three listed at this time last year, according to Colliers ABR.
Michael Colacino, the president of Studley, a real estate brokerage firm that specialises in representing office tenants, said the sublet space that had come onto the market recently was attractively priced.
He said some tenants might do better by shopping the sublet market rather than trying to renegotiate a better rent with their current landlords. ‘A lot of landlords are still in denial,’ Mr Colacino said, ‘but the sublease space is priced realistically for the actual market conditions.’
Mr Colacino estimates that the actual rents on deals signed in the last three months are down by as much as 20-30 per cent from the going rents at the end of the summer - to around US$75-80 per sq ft annually in midtown and around US$45 per sq ft downtown.
Among current offerings - including both subleases and direct leases from owners - roughly a quarter of the space in the midtown and downtown office markets became available because a financial company either did not renew its lease or decided to market the space for sublet.
But the picture could become much starker next year. Among large office blocks that brokers expect to hit the market, Mr Sammons estimates that the financial industry will account for roughly one-third of the new space coming on the market in midtown and more than half of the new space downtown.
Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch and Deutsche Bank all have leases that Mr Sammons counted among the potential new listings of large office blocks. And that list does not include Citigroup - although the banking giant has announced that it will lay off more than 50,000 employees worldwide - because Mr Sammons said it was too soon to know if Citigroup would give up any large office blocks in Manhattan.
So far this year, brokers say, the main event in midtown has been the completion of One Bryant Park, a 54-storey office tower that recently opened at the corner of 42nd Street and the Avenue of the Americas.
As the main tenant Bank of America moves employees into this new building, it is giving up earlier leases for hundreds of thousands of square feet in other prominent midtown office buildings.

Govt releases 10 new sites for foreign worker dorms

Source : Business Times - 4 Dec 2008

MND: Move made to relieve overcrowding from housing shortage

THE Ministry of National Development has announced that 10 new sites will be made available to build temporary foreign worker dormitories.

They comprise three vacant state properties and seven vacant state lands, which could yield around 20,000 bed spaces. The sites are not within close vicinity of public housing.

The dormitories are part of a government effort to provide proper housing for foreign workers while more purpose-built dormitories come on stream over the next few years. The move will help to relieve the current overcrowding in residential premises arising from a shortage of foreign worker accommodation, which could pose public health and fire safety risks.

The vacant state properties are: the former Queenstown polyclinic building, the former CAAS office, and the existing CPG Corporation Airport Development Division. The seven vacant state lands are at Mandai Road, Old Chua Kang Road, Hougang Avenue 3, Seletar West Farmway, Jurong Road Parcel 1, Jurong Road Parcel 2 and Kim Chuan Road. The dormitories on the Queenstown and former CAAS premises will be operational in 3-6 months.

There has been an influx of foreign workers involved in building important infrastructural projects. National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan, referring to the burgeoning foreign worker population here, has said before that Singaporeans must ‘be prepared to see them (foreign workers) and share with them our common spaces’.

Meanwhile, MND has consulted the respective advisers and grassroots organisations on each of the temporary dormitory sites over the past two months, and will implement measures to address any issue arising from the dormitory developments.

Furthermore, the Singapore Police Force will adopt the necessary measures to prevent and detect crimes in the neighbourhood. It will also work with community stakeholders to initiate safety and security projects where appropriate.


Waiting for the storm to hit …

Source : Today - 4 Dec 2008

Going by past recessions, it could take nine more months before prices fall

FOR first-time flat seekers like Mr Neo Tze Siang, the economic downturn was meant to provide some respite from HDB prices pushed skyhigh by the property boom last year.

But despite the raft of job cuts and the gloomy economic forecasts trotted out, HDB prices are showing few signs of sliding.

“We hear about private property prices falling substantially but the current prices of new HDB flats do not seem to reflect the market realities. When the tide goes down, you would expect all ships to move down. But it seems that new HDB flats are not part of the ocean,” lamented Mr Neo, a 28-year-old salesman.

According to industry players, the wait could be at least another nine months - if prices do come down at all - no thanks to the slew of foreigners and private property downgraders eyeing the HDB rental and resale markets respectively, which indirectly pushes up the prices of new HDB flats.

Said Dennis Wee Group director Chris Koh: “Whenever you have a recession, the first to be hit would be the private property market. So, a lot of people will start downgrading from private homes to HDB flats.”

HDB’s “market-based” pricing approach for new flats takes into account several factors, including a project’s location, its individual attributes and the prevailing market conditions. The new flats are sold according to the prices they would fetch on the resale market minus the Government’s subsidy.

And in the first nine months of the year, HDB’s resale price index rose 12.4 per cent, rising by 4.2 per cent in the third quarter.

While HDB resale prices are expected to stabilise in the year ahead, the recession has yet to hit the man-in-the-street, said Mr Koh. A case in point: The latest Built-To-Order project Punggol Arcadia was more than three times oversubscribed, despite having five-room flats going for as much as $356,000 to $416,000.

Still, ERA Asia-Pacific’s assistant vice-president Eugene Lim noticed in recent weeks that prospective home buyers are now trying to get more bang for their buck. Said Mr Lim: “If your house is not near an MRT station, people are offering you prices that match the valuation or even lower.”

National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan explained in 2002 that prices of new HDB flats rise and fall more slowly than do resale flat prices. This was necessary to maintain a stable property market and protect the value of the flats, the minister said.

Prior to last year’s property bull-run, which saw HDB’s resale price index matching its previous peak of 1996, resale flat prices fell by 30 per cent in the aftermath of the 1997 Asian financial crisis. But prices for new flats dropped just 10 to 15 per cent.

Some market experts believe it could be the same story this time round - with prices of new flats in the outlying areas expected to fall faster.

But Mr Lim, for one, doubted that prices of new HDB flats would fall at all, given the perpetually high demand for housing here.

Reiterating how HDB “followed the market and moved prices downwards” in the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis a decade ago, a HDB spokesperson reiterated that the Government “remains committed to ensure that HDB flats are affordable to the vast majority of our citizen families, especially young married couples and the lower-income households”.

Still, in view of the current economic climate, the spokesperson advised flat seekers to “buy a flat within their means, bearing in mind how their future earnings may be impacted”.

The spokesperson added: “Given the current economic climate … They may have to start off with something more modest in size or less than ideal in location if prudence calls.”


Faster, cheaper for firms to get reclaimed land

Source : Straits Times - 4 Dec 2008

RECLAIMED land in Singapore will soon be made available to industrial companies much more quickly and cheaply.

This is thanks to a joint initiative of the Singapore Land Authority (SLA) and industrial landlord JTC Corp to streamline the building of shore protection.

Cutting edge analysis of wave erosion patterns will mean up to $16 million in savings for every kilometre of reclaimed shoreline. The wait for the land could be cut by up to eight months.

Currently, rock embankments costing $12.5 million per km are erected on the shoreline of newly-reclaimed land to prevent soil erosion, SLA said.

But once this land is leased to industrial tenants, they often need to spend about $5 million to tear down the embankment and erect shore protection to suit their operational needs. This is a time-consuming, costly process.

Under the SLA-JTC initiative, the impact of waves on different stretches of the coastline and reclaimed land will be analysed scientifically.

Engineers will then determine the appropriate level of shoreline protection to be put in place for three months until an industrial lessee takes over the land.

The cost of putting in and removing the new shore protection is only about 10 per cent of the one-size-fits-all rock embankment used previously.

Said SLA’s assistant chief executive, Mr Simon Ong: ‘This pro-enterprise initiative helps to attract investors to develop land in Singapore and enhances the economy’s competitiveness.’

SLA is the gatekeeper for all land reclamation projects in Singapore.

The first test case for the new approach is the reclamation that has been done for a mega shipyard in Tuas.

For every kilometre of shoreline of land reclaimed under the new approach for the shipyard, the Government saved five months in construction time and about $11.25 million in costs. The shipyard owner saved nearly three months in construction time and about $4.5 million.

‘Time is money to investors and timely availability of the land for development will affect the investors’ decision of whether or not to establish in Singapore,’ said Mr Ong.

As land is scarce here, many parts of Singapore’s waterfront are being reclaimed for residential, commercial, recreational and industrial purposes.

JTC reclaims land for industrial purposes and then leases it to industrial firms. Waterfront industrial sites, for example, are highly sought after by shipbuilding and marine-related industries.

Mr Ong Geok Soo, JTC’s assistant chief executive, said: ‘At the operational level, this new procedure allows our customers to occupy the reclaimed land quickly to catch their business cycle once the land is formed without having to wait for shore protection works to be completed.’ He said when investors are building a plant, JTC does shore protection work, which cuts the handover time.

There are no updated figures on the extent of land reclamation here.

A 2006 article in The Straits Times stated that Singapore’s land area had grown about 17 per cent from 581.5 sq km in 1960. It said by 2030, another 50 sq km is set to be added - so the island will have expanded by a quarter altogether.


Developers head into crisis with more cash

Source : Business Times - 4 Dec 2008

Gearing improves as developers pare borrowings, increase cash held from divestments

Developers have entered the latest slump in much better shape than they were in during the last property downturn in 2001, a comparison of their cash positions and debt-to-equity ratios then and now shows.

In fact, between the second and third quarters this year, some developers worked to better their gearing ratios. ‘Among the larger-cap developers we track, most reported stronger balance sheets at end-Q3 2008,’ said OCBC Investment Research analyst Foo Sze Ming.

‘On average, the net debt-equity ratio had come down from 0.52 times in Q2 to 0.49 times in Q3. And the improvement was generally attributable to a stronger equity base, paring of borrowings and an increase in cash held from divestments.’

CapitaLand, City Developments and GuocoLand all cut their debt-to-equity ratios in Q3, OCBC’s data shows.

The same trend holds true when comparing developers’ financial positions at end-2001 and Q3 2008. Data gathered by DMG & Partners on selected developers shows most companies now have smaller debt-to- equity ratios. They also have more cash on hand. ‘They are definitely stronger this time around,’ said DMG & Partners analyst Brandon Lee.

Singapore’s big three listed developers - CapitaLand, City Developments and Keppel Land - exemplify this trend. At end-2001, CapitaLand had $1.9 billion of cash and a gearing of 0.87 times. Now, it has a whopping $4.2 billion in cash and a gearing ratio of 0.51 times. Similarly, City- Dev has increased its cash holding from $701.8 million to $813.3 million and cut its gearing from 0.8 times to 0.46 times. KepLand has also increased its cash holding, from $120.9 million to $663.4 million, and cut its gearing from 1.33 times to 0.54 times.

Property companies are expected to continue to try to improve their cash balances and reduce gearing over the next few quarters. SC Global Developments, for example, recently drew $100 million from reserve facilities to boost cash on hand. But the pace of divestment is expected to slow as buyers get cold feet in the poor economic climate.

Analysts reckon things do not look as bad as feared for developers for another reason - in the Q3 earnings reporting season, much- feared provisions for landbanks acquired at high prices, which analysts had predicted, did not materialise.

Analysts have changed their tune and now expect developers to make provisions only in the second half of 2009, or even later. Some also reckon the provisions could be less than what the market has already priced in.

In 2001 and 2002, several developers, including CapitaLand, CityDev and Keppel Land, made massive write-downs on their Singapore residential landbanks, which hit their results badly. But this time around, the write-offs may be smaller, some analysts say.

Keppel Land was one of the first developers to make provisions in 2001, announcing $455 million of write-downs in the value of its residential landbank in November that year.

But the risk of a landbank write-down in the current downturn is lower for KepLand because the company did not buy any land in Singapore last year and its current landbank is carried in its books at relatively low cost, said OCBC’s Mr Foo.

CIMB analyst Donald Chua said: ‘We are not seeing provisions yet because prices have not fallen that much yet. Developers are probably waiting to see how the market pans out next year.’ In light of this, provisions are unlikely for Q4 unless things take a turn for the worse, Mr Chua said.

In the 2000-2003 property downturn, the residential price index for private homes recorded a quarter-on-quarter drop in Q3 2000. However, the provisions and write-offs only came towards the end of 2001. This time around, the quarter-on-quarter dip in the price index appeared only in Q3 2008, so provisions are only expected around end-2009.

Downward revaluations of investment properties are still expected in Q4 2008 when developers do their yearly valuations. And for many developers, landbank write-downs will definitely take place at some point in time if ‘things keep going this way’, an analyst said.


Life after DPS won’t be crippling for developers

Source : Business Times - 4 Dec 2008




Study shows they can weather even 20% default rate by buyers under scheme


A NEW report, which looks at the potential impact if buyers who bought homes under the deferred payment scheme (DPS) choose to walk away from their deals, concludes that developers are not likely to be too badly hit even under a 20 per cent default scenario.


The report by DBS Group Research captured the impact of defaults in projects expected to get their Temporary Occupation Permit (TOP) in 2009 on developers’ earnings, operating cash flow, net gearing and interest cover. For this analysis, analyst Adrian Chua covered two default scenarios: 10 per cent and 20 per cent of all DPS units defaulting. Both scenarios assume the developers do not resell the default units within the year.



‘Gearing ratios for the developers do not deteriorate significantly even under a 20 per cent default scenario,’ Mr Chua concluded. ‘Operating cash flow and earnings would come down (which is a given) but not to the extent where it leads to a negative operating cash flow or loss-making situation. Interest cover continues to be healthy.’


But among the developers, the smaller players would be more impacted in terms of proportional decline in earnings and interest cover, the report concludes. It investigated the impact of defaults on six developers - CapitaLand, City Developments, Ho Bee Investment, Keppel Land, UOL Group and Wing Tai. Allgreen Properties, SC Global Developments and United Industrial Corp were excluded as they have no projects currently expected to obtain TOP in 2009. Wheelock Properties, which did not offer the DPS, was also left out.


The DPS has been a sticking point between analysts and developers. Many analysts have predicted that large numbers of homebuyers could walk away from their purchases once projects obtain TOP, when the bulk of the purchase price is due under the DPS.


Developers dispute this view. Developers DBS Research spoke to have maintained the likelihood of default risk is low, given that speculation in 2006-07 did not reach the property bubble levels of 1995-96, the firm said in the note.


But part of the speculative intention could be masked under the DPS, which was not part of the property landscape back in 1995-96, noted Mr Chua. ‘As such, the real speculative activity in the market could become completely apparent only upon TOP of these units,’ he said.


In addition, the recent property upcycle also saw active participation by foreign buyers, which adds an additional unknown to the equation: whether these buyers will follow through on their payments upon TOP. The unwinding of global financial markets and the spectre of a prolonged economic downturn and asset devaluation could force these foreign buyers to default on their property purchases here, Mr Chua said.


The research note concluded that while a 20 per cent default is not likely to hurt developers too much, the effect of DPS defaults is just one of a few challenges facing the developers in 2009. Certainly, an asset devaluation scenario in line with declining capital values could potentially bring down developers’ book value and correspondingly increase their gearing, the note said.


‘We remain cautious over the short term for the residential developers, in light of a lack of catalysts from the physical market and poor economic sentiment,’ said Mr Chua.



Half of Marina Bay Sands retail space taken up

Source : Channel NewsAsia - 4 Dec 2008

Singapore’s Marina Bay Sands integrated resort will unveil details of plans for its retail space after the Chinese New Year in January next year.

Recent reports said its parent company, Las Vegas Sands, is facing financial difficulties. But the Singapore firm remains confident about prospects for its retail business.

The S$5.4-billion Marina Bay Sands project is still being built. When completed, it will have 800,000 square feet of retail space which can house about 300 stores.

The Marina Bay Sands Shoppes will be 20 per cent smaller than Singapore’s largest shopping mall at VivoCity.

VivoCity has about 1.04 million square feet of net lettable floor space. Prior to the construction of VivoCity, Suntec City Mall was the largest shopping centre in Singapore with 888,000 square feet of retail space.

The resort said half of that space has already been taken up, and will feature over 30 brands that are new to Singapore.

David Sylvester, vice president, Retail Development Asia, Las Vegas Sands, said: “We will have a lot of leading-edge retail… It will be a mixture of European, some American brands, some Japanese, some Korean.”

Marina Bay Sands said it would start marketing campaigns to attract more retailers to lease shops at the resort from February next year. These efforts will include trade shows and talks in Europe.

However, there are currently no plans to adjust rentals to match the slowing economy, and Sands remains positive about the future.

“Obviously, there have been a lot of concerns about the economic environment globally, but everybody has been very positive on the Marina Bay Sands because by the time we open, we are talking about end of 2009. We’ve got to think that things will turn around by then,” said Mr Sylvester.

Competition in the retail sector is expected to be stiff in 2009, with four new malls coming up along Orchard Road, Singapore’s prime retail belt.

The four malls are ION, Orchard Central, Mandarin Gallery and 313@Somerset. Sands said its retail operations will complement these new malls rather than compete with the offerings there.

The retail component of the resort will open in two phases – the luxury stores are due to do business at the end of next year, while the rest will be ready in 2010.

Las Vegas Sands has transferred about 16 staff from its Hong Kong office to Singapore to drive its retail marketing and leasing operations at Marina Bay Sands.


No new sites added to land sales programme for first half of 2009

Source : Channel NewsAsia - 4 Dec 2008

The Singapore government will not be adding any new sites to its land sale programme for the first half of next year.

The National Development Ministry (MND) says this is because the global economic outlook remains weak in 2009.

This is expected to have an impact on Singapore’s economy and property market.

MND released its list of land parcels available for sale in the first half of next year on Thursday.

It will be carrying over 37 sites from this year’s list.

Another unsold executive condominium site at Punggol Road will also be added.

All the sites will be made available through the reserve list.

This means the government will only put a site up for sale via tender, after an interested party has pledged to bid for the site at an acceptable minimum price.

MND says the 38 sites on next year’s list can potentially yield 7,920 private homes, 512,000 square metres of gross floor area and 5,160 new hotel rooms.

The ministry says commercial space that will be released in 2009 outside of the land sale programme will be reduced and confined to only projects that are meant to meet strategic economic or development objectives.

In all, there will be another 40,000 square metres of commercial space, including space at One-North, Sentosa, parks and MRT stations.


No new sites for MND’s H1 2009 Govt Land Sales Programme

Source : Business Times - 4 Dec 2008

Ministry of National Development (MND) has decided not to add any new sites to the Government Land Sales (GLS) Programme for first half 2009.

The H1 2009 slate - comprising entirely reserve list sites, as previously announced - will have a total of 38 sites. These comprise 37 plots that are being carried over from the H2 2008 reserve list slate and the unsold executive condo site at Punggol Road/Punggol Field which had been tendered under the confirmed list of H2 2008.

The sites that will be available in the H1 2009 GLS Programme can potentially yield some 7,920 private homes, 512,000 sq metres gross floor area (GFA) of commercial space and 5,160 hotel rooms.

‘The Government will not add any new sites to the GLS Programme for H1 2009,’ MND said.

In formulating its policy, the Ministry took into account the current economic uncertainties and noted that the global economic outlook is likely to remain weak in 2009 and this would have an impact on Singapore’s economy, including the property market.

Giving an update on land supply outside the GLS Progamme, MND said there will be a reduced supply of commercial space and no new supply of private residential units from Government agencies. The H1 2009 supply from this source will comprise about 40,000 sq metres GFA of commercial space and 240 hotel rooms.

This is smaller than the land supply for 20 private residential units, 143,000 sq m of commercial space and 240 hotel rooms outside the GLS Programme for H2 2008.


Live and let live

Source : Today - 4 Dec 2008

Residents react, as 10 new sites for temporary housing unveiled

AS THE Government unveiled 10 more sites for temporary foreign worker accommodation, some lessons appear to have hit home for residents, their representatives and policymakers alike from the Serangoon Gardens episode two months ago.

In the Serangoon Gardens case, homeowners tipped off before any official announcement had opposed the idea of housing workers in their estate, complaining of a lack of consultation and a possible spike in crime rates and congestion.

This time round, the Ministry of National Development (MND) said it had spent the past two months consulting with grassroots leaders and advisers to identify and manage concerns.

Measures to “minimise disamenities” will be put in place. For instance, developers will have to ensure there are adequate facilities set up, and a worker in each dorm will be appointed as a liaison officer for grassroots groups in the area.

Only two of the 10 sites named yesterday are near residential areas the former Queenstown Polyclinic on Margaret Drive, and an empty plot close to Tai Keng Gardens along Hougang Avenue 3. The other sites are near industrial areas.

Ten Queenstown residents told Today they had not known of the plans, but only one objected.

Member of Parliament Baey Yam Keng said residents were not consulted beforehand as “the lesson learnt from the Serangoon Gardens episode is that the news was leaked out prematurely” and it had led to misunderstanding among the residents.

“This time, we made sure there is a proper study and engagement of grassroots leaders and the MP, and now also the residents,” he said.

The former polyclinic will be turned into a temporary dorm for some 150 construction workers in three to six months’ time.

Mdm Tan Gek Ling, 70, a retiree who lives in the HDB block opposite the vacant building, said “No one asked for my opinion. But it is okay, the workers are here to work and anyway, we will move out after two years because of en-bloc redevelopment.”

Mr Goh Seng Theng, 67, a bus-driver, said “Some of the shophouses below my block rent the space to foreign workers. The workers have been fine and didn’t create any trouble. With 150 more of them here, though, it’s hard to say.”

Mr Farah Fadil, 21, was less sanguine. “I will feel unsafe because they may get drunk at the void decks and make noise,” said the barista. “There are many children in Queenstown. What if the foreign workers create trouble with them?”

To gather such feedback, Mr Baey will visit one of the blocks near the dormitory on Friday.

“We will also be having a dialogue session on Dec 20 and it will most likely focus on this issue,” said the MP, who has held three discussions with the authorities and two with community leaders over the past two months.

Plans to ensure residents’ lives aren’t affected

Over at Hougang Avenue 3, the piece of vacant state land will be put up for tender, in tandem with demand for dormitories over the next few years.

Grassroots leader Eric Wong said some residents were “naturally concerned” about issues like security. But most were comfortable with the idea after community leaders explained the safeguards to be taken, he added.

Indeed, most residents at Tai Keng Gardens that Today spoke to said they were not worried.

Mrs Cindy Ho, a clerk in her 50s, said “It will be more than 500m away. And the dormitory will be separated from our estate by a thick forest, so I don’t think it will pose any real problems for us here.”

Mr Lim Kee Chye, 60, said “As long as the measures are implemented and things are kept under control, I don’t see any issue with having a dormitory nearby. If things are managed properly, such as having a dorm curfew, there shouldn’t be many incidents of littering or disorderly behaviour.”

Member of Parliament Dr Fatimah Lateef, who oversees the area, said she had visited the site several times with key community leaders to spot potential concerns.

They also held dialogue sessions with MND to come up with solutions, such as security and traffic arrangements.

“We have very detailed plans on how to make sure the dormitory will not affect the lives of our residents,” she told Today.

“We discussed things like curfews, where the workers’ transportation will come in and other issues.”

But, she conceded, it was “not possible to please everyone and there are bound to be some complaints”. They would monitor the situation “very closely” after the dorms are set up, and work with the authorities to address any issues that crop up, she added.