HK ready to avert property bubble

Source : Business Times – 14 Oct 2009

Hong Kong could increase land supply in coming months to rein in property prices, Chief Executive Donald Tsang said, as a luxury flat sold for a world record, heightening concerns about a possible property bubble.

Developer Henderson Land Development said it had sold a deluxe duplex in the Mid-Levels district on the lower slopes of the city’s exclusive Peak for HK$71,280 (US$9,100) per square foot – setting a world record per square foot for an apartment and surpassing London prices.

Property prices in Hong Kong have surged 26 per cent this year, despite the economic downturn, amid low new supply and strong demand for luxury property from wealthy Chinese.

Hong Kong’s government, which controls land supply, has not sold residential land for a year and a half.

‘The government will closely monitor market changes in the coming months. When necessary, we will fine-tune land supply arrangements … with a view to quickening the pace of bringing readily available residential sites to the market,’ Mr Tsang said in his annual policy address to the Legislative Council.

‘The relatively small number of residential units completed and the record prices attained in certain transactions this year have caused concern about the supply of flats, difficulty in purchasing a home, and the possibility of a property bubble,’ he said.

Two 4,000-square-feet (372 sq metres) penthouses in a development on the Kowloon peninsula with views of the city’s harbour, will be among the world’s most expensive apartments if they fetch their price tag of nearly US$38 million.

TROPHY PRICES

Hong Kong’s currency peg to a weak US dollar makes property attractive to foreign investors. The peg forces Hong Kong to track US interest rates – which are expected to stay very low for some time – unlike South Korea, which has threatened to raise rates soon to stave off a property bubble.

Developers have been wooing millionaires from China with a slew of all-expenses paid property-viewing tours.

In September, a one-bedroom 590-sq-ft apartment in a downtown Kowloon district sold for just over US$3 million.

‘People are paying what I describe as trophy prices which don’t bear any reality with what’s happening within the economy,’ said Nicholas Brooke, chairman of real estate consultancy Professional Property Services in Hong Kong.

He said a London flat by the Thames would fetch 2,000 pounds (US$3,200) per square foot, while an apartment overlooking New York’s Central Park would go for US$4,000 per square foot.

Money from new stock market listings and easy bank lending also allow Chinese to snap up luxury property, he said.

Broker Nomura estimates mainland Chinese now account for 11 per cent of Hong Kong property sales and warns of a bubble.

‘Strong liquidity, low supply, strong external demand and aggressive mortgage lending are creating ideal conditions for another housing bubble in Hong Kong,’ Nomura property analyst Paul Louie wrote in a report.

The city’s last property bubble in the late 1990s burst with the 1997/98 Asian financial crisis, triggering a 70 per cent plunge in apartment prices over six years that destroyed wealth and hurt the economy.

The sort of speculative buying of property seen in the late 1990s is not yet apparent, however.

Keith Yeung, property analyst at Mirae Asset Securities, says the market is similar to 2004/05 when prices surged 34 per cent in 2004 but gained just 6 per cent in 2005.

‘The price increases will happen early in the cycle,’ Mr Yeung said. He expects prices to rise by just 5 per cent to 10 per cent next year as supply gradually improves and interest rates rise.