Friday, May 28, 2010

Are we headed for a housing glut?

Responding to the strong demand for private housing and land for private residential developments, the Ministry of National Development last week released its “highest potential supply quantum” per half year since 2001.

Comments from the industry suggest they expect the impact of this strong signal to be immediate, in terms of cooling home sales and dampening land bids.

Well, the experts have been swiftly proven wrong.

The first tender to close thereafter saw a record price for Executive Condominium (EC) land. The level of interest has also not waned. The number of bids – seven – was about on par with recent tender exercises for EC and Design, Build and Sell Scheme sites.

Just how large is the newly-announced housing land supply? Assuming developers do not trigger any sites from the reserve list for the second half of the year, the estimated 8,135 private homes from the confirmed list sites for the second half is only 30 per cent more than the actual first-half supply (including triggered sites).

Given that demand from developers has been enthusiastic, a 30-per-cent growth rate for the next six months may not be too unreasonable.

At the same time, it might be necessary to close the tenders for the next few sites at the same time, to thwart further rises in land prices.

If it is not a big problem for developers to absorb the increased supply, what about the demand side? Will there be enough buyers?

Yes, if the results of a recent property survey are to be believed. The survey with a sample size of more than 2,200 people found that three out of four potential home-buyers feel that the prices of private homes and resale Housing and Development Board (HDB) flats in Singapore are too high.

I think most of us know that already, but wait for this: Out of a sub-set of 657 active property seekers, 75 per cent still hope to buy a home within the next two years. They constitute 22 per cent of the total sample size. And this after saying in the same survey that they expect HDB resale prices and private property prices to rise between 6 and 10 per cent over the coming year. The survey was conducted last month and this month – after two sets of cooling measures were already introduced.

Last year, we had about 1.1 million households in Singapore. If we apply the 22-per-cent finding, this means there would be 242,000 households actively seeking to buy a property within the next two years. That is a lot of buying potential. Even if we were to take just one-fifth of this to allow for a very high margin of error, that is still 48,400 households.

This is the conundrum facing the Singapore housing market – the liquidity problem. Potential buyers know that housing prices are high but are still intent on buying. Developers sense this even if they cannot quantify it.

The trick is to turn things around fast, from land award to securing a sales licence before any correction can take place. The only crucial factor is whether the downpayment is affordable: If this cannot be done, throw in branded furnishings. Which tenant can resist such fine living?

As one property consultant noted: The bullish demand is largely driven by sentiment rather than a supply shortage. Quite right, as most buyers are investment driven, not need-driven.

Will it all come to grief eventually? You do the math. The capacity to occupy the homes is only 8,700 units per annum (average for past decade). The land supply for this year will be at least 14,400 units. The remaining owners will have to find other better uses for their homes when completed.

Source : Today – 28 May 2010

Thursday, May 27, 2010

Concept Plan 2011 - A chance for real, lasting change

Concept Plan 2011 may sound like yet another bureaucratic exercise that will produce another paper to be filed away – and many people have simply ignored it. Past history shows that Concept Plans can actually be a big deal, though.

Just look back a few decades. Minister for National Development Mah Bow Tan said recently: “In the first Concept Plan in 1971, we drew up plans for major infrastructure projects such as Changi Airport and our first MRT lines.”

Two decades later, “in the 1991 Concept Plan, we systematically planned for the decentralisation of commercial space from the CBD”, he added.

Recommendations in those two Concept Plans have radically transformed Singapore.

A further two decades on, it may now be the right time for another radical change. This time, though, the initial recommendations announced early this month make it seem like Concept Plan 2011 could focus as much on the softer side of Singapore’s soul as on infrastructure.

It has the potential to catalyse far-reaching changes that could create a more vibrant place to live. To make a real difference, though, three unpolished gems amid the concepts floated so far may need a lot more polishing to make a real difference.

One of those gems is – as the focus group said – that the city needs buzz. With only 43 per cent of respondents in the Urban Redevelopment Authority’s 2009 Lifestyle Survey saying they are satisfied with night-time activities and events here, many Singaporeans seem to agree. The recent CB Richard Ellis study showing that Singapore had dropped to 11th place for cities where top world retailers are located reaffirms the need for vibrancy.

Yet much more than closing downtown streets on weekends and putting art on the streets is needed. Renowned researcher Richard Florida says that knowledge workers prefer things like a “vibrant music scene, outdoor restaurants, organic supermarkets, juice bars”, rather than “passive cultural amenities” and “big-ticket items”.

Innovative ideas for more far-reaching concepts – from edgier entertainment to entirely new models for restaurants and retailers – may need to become key parts of the mix.

A second gem involved concepts for buildings that included recommendations for changes such as organic growth in “distinctive neighbourhoods” like Bugis or Little India, and space for inter-generational bonding.

All are good concepts. Again, more transformational changes than tweaks to HDB flats may be needed to bridge the generational and diversity divides.

In one of his books Harvard professor Robert Putnam cites a dozen success stories – such as the Chicago public library branches that have become vital locations for building social connections – as examples of how to build social capital. Multi-cultural multi-ethnic Singapore may have even more opportunities than the United States, and out-of-the-box thinking could create new concepts that better connect this diversity of people.

The concept of diversity, too, could be expanded to refer to anything from art havens to lifestyle choices.

And third, the focus group recommended environmentally-friendly projects ranging from bike lanes and better public transport to creating a Heritage Charter to preserve historic buildings. But rather than just pulling down old buildings or clearing away parks to make way for the new, co-chairman Lee Tzu Yang said it is important to “try and build a consensus among all the stakeholders in a particular district as to how to cherish, safeguard the things we love”.

These ideas are good too, yet, as reporter Ong Dai Lin noted in Today’s coverage of the Concept Plan 2011, “their suggestions echoed popular calls that have been rejected time and again”. More transformative projects, perhaps something like solar panels on the roof of every public building to make Singapore a world model for alternative energy, could offer changes that remake Singapore.

This once-in-two-decades chance to transform Singapore through the Concept Plan seems too important to ignore. What may be needed to propel Singapore forward is more input from more people and truly innovative ideas for creating vibrancy or improving fundamental policies.

While small focus groups and lightly-publicised requests for feedback that drew a few thousand responses are a start, only around 0.1 per cent of the population has provided input on what could truly be a plan to reinvent Singapore yet again. Now is the time to put the power of many more people to work.

Source : Today – 27 May 2010

URA unveils sales conditions for Pioneer Road North & Soon Lee Street site

The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) has released details on the sales conditions for the Reserve List site at Pioneer Road North and Soon Lee Street.

The plot of land, which is meant for industrial development, will have a site area of about 1.4 hectares.

It has a gross plot ratio of 2.0 and a 30-year-lease period.

The site is also situated near to Pioneer MRT station.

Under the Reserve List system, a site would be released for sale only if a bid with an acceptable minimum price is received.

Source : Channel NewsAsia – 27 May 2010

CapitaCommercial Trust to spend S$92m to upgrade building

CapitaCommercial Trust plans to spend about S$92 million for asset enhancement work on its existing Grade A office building at Six Battery Road.

Based on the property’s valuation as at end December 2009, the cost is equivalent to approximately eight per cent.

CCT says Six Battery Road will be physically, technically and functionally enhanced to meet the modern-day needs of office tenants and improve the building’s energy efficiency and environmental sustainability.

The works are scheduled to commence in October this year.

Chairman of the trust manager, Richard Hale, says the ‘green features’ that will be incorporated into the landmark office building will contribute to improved operational efficiency and costs savings in the long term.

The entire asset enhancement works will be carried out in phases until 2013 so that tenants can continue to operate in the building with minimal inconvenience.

Source : Channel NewsAsia – 27 May 2010

Far East Organization clinches 6th FIABCI Prix d’Excellence award

Developer Far East Organization has won its 6th FIABCI Prix d’Excellence award.

The award honours world-class developments for demonstrating excellence in all aspects of their creation.

This year, Far East won the award in the Office Category for its mixed-use development, Central.

Central is located above the Clarke Quay Mass Rapid Transit station, on a 1.3-hectare site in the city’s civic, cultural and tourist precinct.

It was built at a cost of S$631 million and integrates various functions including habitation, lifestyle, business, community and transportation connectivity within one complex.

Far East said the development reinvented a “live, work, play” concept that reflected its vicinity’s historical and strategic significance.

The development has two towers of purpose-built Small Office Home Office (SOHO) units, a 25-storey office tower, a sky garden, recreational facilities, and a retail podium.

The company received its award on Thursday evening at the FIABCI World Congress held in Bali, where Indonesian Vice President Budiono presented the awards.

FIABCI, an International Real Estate Federation, is a non-profit association that acts as special consultant with non-government organisation status to the United Nations.

Source : Channel NewsAsia – 27 May 2010

China developers target residential segment in Singapore

Developers from China are looking to break into the Singapore property sector by building mass market and mid-tier residential homes.

Observers said the new entrants want to diversify from their home market, while seeking opportunities in Singapore’s growing property sector.

Since late 2007, China-based developers have been trying to cut themselves a slice of the pie.

While they account for no more than 5 per cent of the market, market watchers said they have been gunning for land.

“The success rate has been quite low for them – about 20 per cent of the bids turn into a successful construction project for them. Nonetheless, of all the bids they have put in, about 13 or 45 per cent of those bids, are in the top three running order, so they are quite aggressive on that front,” said Chua Yang Liang, head of Research (SEA) at Jones Lang LaSalle.

Market watchers said China developers are most active in bidding for mass market residential sites – the market they are most familiar with.

And some with deep pockets bid aggressively – such as China Sonangol Land buying the Parisian site at Paterson Road in October last year for some S$283 million.

While margins for China developers are lower, at around 20 per cent compared to the 30 per cent they can find in their home market, observers said they are willing to sacrifice a little for diversification.

But analysts also warn that China players may not stick around if the market turns down.

“When you go into a market like Singapore where there are a lot of local players, that margin could slow down to some 10-12 percent. At some point in time, they might find that there might not be good opportunities here in Singapore,” said Donald Han, MD of Cushman & Wakefield.

Some observers said that more developers from China could mean more buyers from China.

Developers coming from the mainland could bring with them client lists for investors looking to buy into Singapore property.

Source : Channel NewsAsia – 27 May 2010

Wednesday, May 26, 2010

Big Apple shops pay big rent

Singapore has moved up one spot to become the 17th most expensive retail location in the world.

According to the latest CB Richard Ellis (CBRE) Global MarketView report on the retail sector, prime retail rents in Singapore stood at US$436 ($619) per square foot per annum in the first quarter of this year.

It said prime retail rents in the world’s leading shopping destinations have stabilised in most markets in the first quarter.

The report said as the global economic recovery begins to gather momentum, consumer and retailer confidence have started to improve.

While this has still not translated into retail sales growth in most markets, demand for prime retail space remains healthy and vacancy in the best locations is low, it added.

As a result, there are a number of major cities where prime rents are rising, and many more where the rate of decline has slowed or rents are now stable.

New York City remained the world’s most expensive retail destination, with prime rents at US$1,725 psf/annum. Sydney was in second place globally at US$1,155 psf/annum, while Hong Kong ranked third at US$974 psf/annum.

London remained in fourth place, after recording a 20-per-cent annual increase in rents since the first quarter of last year to US$861 psf/annum.

Paris rounded out the top five locations with rents of US$791 psf/annum.

Tokyo stayed in seventh position globally, with rents of US$711 psf/annum, while Brisbane moved up one place from the fourth quarter of last year to rank eighth at US$668 psf/annum, and Melbourne remained in 10th place at US$568 psf/annum.

The report said the Asian region is helping to lead the recovery, with retail markets generally stabilising or strengthening in the first quarter.

It added that with the exception of Japan, retail leasing activity in major Asian cities continued to pick up and a number of international retailers are looking to expand their footprint across the region, particularly in Singapore, Hong Kong, Beijing and Shanghai.

Ms Letty Lee, CBRE’s director of retail services in Singapore, said: “The retail landscape changed dramatically over the past year. Singapore has been successful in attracting a sizeable number of global brands and new-to-market concepts due to an abundant choice of prime pipeline supply in the Orchard Road and the Marina Bay area. That in turn has put some pressure on prime retail rents.”

However, CBRE said there is a risk of supply imbalance in markets like China and India, where a large amount of shopping centre construction will be delivered over the next nine months.

Source : Today – 26 May 2010

Any of these land parcels may be exchanged for pieces of land of equivalent value in Marina South and Ophir-Rochor.

This spells good news for private developers, as more choice land parcels in the prime districts may be up for grabs.

Last week, the Ministry of National Development (MND) withdrew a white site at Ophir-Rochor that was previously made available for sale via the Reserve List in October 2008.

MND had said in its news release that this Ophir-Rochor land parcel will be removed from the Government Land Sales (GLS) programme as “the development plan for the site is being reviewed”.

Both the Urban Redevelopment Authority and Singapore’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs declined to provide MediaCorp with details of the site area and exact locations of the land parcels involved.

Mr Nicholas Mak, real-estate lecturer at Ngee Ann Polytechnic, said that due to the high valuation of the land parcels, which may run into hundreds of million or more, he reckons both Singapore and Malaysia may hire more than one valuer each to conduct respective valuation of the land parcels.

Valuation fees alone may run upwards of a few hundred thousand dollars, due to the sheer size of the land parcels, Mr Mak added.

Mr Colin Tan, head of research and consultancy at Chesterton Suntec International, predicts that it is very likely that M-S will swap its current land parcel in Tanjong Pagar for same-value land parcels in Marina South or Ophir-Rochor.

“Both Marina South and Ophir-Rochor sites are more well-developed in terms of facilities and amenities available, as compared to the current site which holds the Tanjong Pagar railway station,” said Mr Tan.

He added that Marina South has the upcoming Marina Bay Financial Centre, while Ophir-Rochor has a certain buzz and historical heritage because of its location near Arab street and Sultan Mosque, which has attracted several backpackers’ hostels to set up there.

Source : Today – 26 May 2010

M-S likely to swap land for prime plots: analysts

The Ophir-Rochor and Marina South land parcels, which may be up for redevelopment by the Singapore-Malaysian joint venture company, M-S Pte Ltd, could be worth hundreds of millions of dollars.

Analysts believe that should M-S decide to open up the land to developers, it could trigger fierce bidding for prime real estate.

Earlier this week, the Singapore Government said the 78-year-old Tanjong Pagar railway station will be moved to Woodlands by July 1 next year.

Three land parcels in Bukit Timah will be vested in M-S for joint development, in addition to three land parcels in Tanjong Pagar, Kranji and Woodlands.

Any of these land parcels may be exchanged for pieces of land of equivalent value in Marina South and Ophir-Rochor.

This spells good news for private developers, as more choice land parcels in the prime districts may be up for grabs.

Last week, the Ministry of National Development (MND) withdrew a white site at Ophir-Rochor that was previously made available for sale via the Reserve List in October 2008.

MND had said in its news release that this Ophir-Rochor land parcel will be removed from the Government Land Sales (GLS) programme as “the development plan for the site is being reviewed”.

Both the Urban Redevelopment Authority and Singapore’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs declined to provide MediaCorp with details of the site area and exact locations of the land parcels involved.

Mr Nicholas Mak, real-estate lecturer at Ngee Ann Polytechnic, said that due to the high valuation of the land parcels, which may run into hundreds of million or more, he reckons both Singapore and Malaysia may hire more than one valuer each to conduct respective valuation of the land parcels.

Valuation fees alone may run upwards of a few hundred thousand dollars, due to the sheer size of the land parcels, Mr Mak added.

Mr Colin Tan, head of research and consultancy at Chesterton Suntec International, predicts that it is very likely that M-S will swap its current land parcel in Tanjong Pagar for same-value land parcels in Marina South or Ophir-Rochor.

“Both Marina South and Ophir-Rochor sites are more well-developed in terms of facilities and amenities available, as compared to the current site which holds the Tanjong Pagar railway station,” said Mr Tan.

He added that Marina South has the upcoming Marina Bay Financial Centre, while Ophir-Rochor has a certain buzz and historical heritage because of its location near Arab street and Sultan Mosque, which has attracted several backpackers’ hostels to set up there.

Source : Today – 26 May 2010

Singapore beats Hong Kong as Asia’s most livable city

Singapore retained its ranking as the Asian city with the best quality of life, while Hong Kong lags rival financial hubs as it struggles with air pollution, according to a survey by Mercer Consulting.

Singapore ranks 28 among 221 cities, Tokyo is at 40 and Hong Kong is placed 71, the list shows. The cities are rated on 10 factors including infrastructure, political and social environments, and access to medical care. Hong Kong scored poorly on health concerns, said Cathy Loose, a Tokyo-based Mercer officer who helped compile the list.

“The government hasn’t done very much to introduce green measures or reduce pollution,” Loose said in an interview. The list serves as a compensation guide for expatriate relocation.

Hong Kong’s air pollution was the worst on record during the past two quarters, sparking regular government health warnings. To address the problem, the government introduced a bill in April proposing a ban on idling engines among other steps.

“To tackle local emissions we have been implementing very stringent control measures which are equivalent to those being required by other advanced countries,” Eva Wong, spokeswoman at the environmental department said in an e-mailed response to questions from Bloomberg.

The government is working with local bus companies and also neighboring cities in southern China to curb air pollution and is investing HK$300 million ($54 million) to develop low-carbon transport technology to cut roadside emissions, she said.

Media Censorship

Singapore lags Hong Kong only on measurements of personal freedom and media censorship, said Loose. Mercer is a unit of Marsh & McLennan Cos.

Hong Kong’s effort to cut pollution and protect the environment trails even that of Havana and ranks just above Damascus, the list shows. Overall, Vienna retains the top spot as the world’s best city to live in.

Source : Bloomberg – 26 May 2010

Tuesday, May 25, 2010

Ophir-Rochor land parcel could be worth hundreds of millions of dollars: analysts

A land parcel at the Ophir-Rochor area, which might be up for redevelopment by the Singapore-Malaysian joint venture company, M-S, could be worth hundreds of millions of dollars.

Analysts said should M-S decide to open up the land to developers, it could trigger fierce bidding for prime real estate.

Choice property in the city is hard to find.

A site at Ophir-Rochor area was removed from the government land sales programme last week after being available for sale since 2008.

The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) had said it’s reviewing the use of the site.

That has led to increasing speculation, especially after Malaysia and Singapore announced on Monday that they will form a joint entity called M-S to develop land in Singapore owned by Malayan Railway.

Both countries agreed that M-S would be vested with several parcels, including land in Kranji, Woodlands and Bukit Timah.

But they could swop the plots for equivalent value real estate in the Ophir-Rochor and Marina South areas.

Colin Tan, consultancy director, Chesterton Suntec International Research, said: “I think the most likely scenario that will arise from this is that the company will probably trade these parcels of land for something in Ophir or Marina South because those two areas are more ready for redevelopment. The infrastructure around it is ready.”

The Ophir-Rochor plot is estimated to be worth hundreds of millions of dollars.

Nicholas Mak, real estate lecturer, Ngee Ann Polytechnic, said: “One neat and quick way for M-S Private Limited to realise value of some of these sites is to actually sell them in the open market to private developers. After that, they can decide on how to utilise and divide up the sales proceeds.”

If the swap happens, analysts expect the Marina South plots to be redeveloped for prime office space or high-end condominiums.

The Ophir-Rochor plot could be made into a tourist and backpacker hub.

On Monday, M-S was also vested with a plot in Tanjong Pagar, after the Singapore government announced plans to move the 78-year old train station there to Woodlands.

M-S is 60 per cent owned by the Malaysian government investment arm while Singapore’s Temasek Holdings owns the rest.

Source : Channel NewsAsia – 25 May 2010