Saturday, April 4, 2009

Singapore is 10th for highest expatriate rents


Source : Business Times - 4 Apr 2009

Some are leaving and for those staying on, prospects of allowance cuts loom.

SINGAPORE is still one of the 10 most expensive cities for expatriates to rent housing, a survey has found. Comparing residential rents in 300 cities for expats, Mercer placed Singapore in tenth spot for costs in February this year. It ranked ninth in September 2008.

According to Mercer, weakening demand for property caused rents to ease and helped Singapore move down a notch on its rental property index.

Property consultant DTZ said in a report this week that average monthly rents for luxury condos and apartments in prime districts fell as much as 18.8 per cent in Q1 2009 to $5.20 psf from a quarter earlier. This brought rents back to Q3 2006 levels.

‘The leasing market bore the brunt of corporate downsizing and increased supply from new completions,’ DTZ said. ‘Some investors have resorted to renting out their units for the time being, hoping to sell when the market recovers.’

Other property consultants have noted that expats are leaving Singapore. And for those staying behind, there is the prospect of a cut in allowances.

Mercer says Hong Kong is in a similar situation. Ranked last year as the second most expensive city for expatriate rental housing, it now takes third place after the economic slowdown eroded demand.

While Singapore and Hong Kong have slipped down the chart, a few other Asian cities have become costlier places for expats to rent as their currencies rose. Because Mercer based cost comparisons on the US dollar, exchange rate movements affected rankings.

‘The world’s housing markets have been sliding since 2008, and strong currency fluctuations in the past few months have also had a strong impact on the comparative cost of expatriate housing,’ said Mercer’s information product solutions business principal and Asia-Pacific global mobility leader Cathy Loose.

Tokyo, for instance, has moved up one spot from last September to second place on the rental property index as the yen appreciated 17 per cent against the US dollar. And Beijing has jumped four spots to number six. Together with Mumbai and New Delhi, six Asian cities are in the top 10.

Moscow leads the latest index, while New York City, Geneva and London take fifth, seventh and ninth positions respectively. London has fallen five places from last year as the pound depreciated and residential rents softened.

In the region, Jakarta, Kuala Lumpur and Bangkok are ranked 34th, 36th and 44th respectively. ‘Over the next few months, we would expect to see a general decline in rents due to the economic slowdown,’ Mercer said. In Singapore, DTZ says average monthly rents for non-landed luxury homes could drop 25 per cent or more this year.

Companies sending their employees abroad will benefit from falling rents, Mercer noted: ‘Multinational companies should closely monitor the changes in markets so as not to lose out on opportunities for cost savings.’


Doubts about real estate industry’s ability to self-regulate


Source : Straits Times - 4 Apr 2009

THE comments of Mr Peter Koh, chairman of the executive committee of the Singapore Accredited Estate Agencies (SAEA), in the letter “Real estate agencies fully back govt review” (March 30), are certainly incongruous with both the situation in the industry and my unpleasant experience with a few property agencies under its scheme.

Since December, I have been receiving nuisance calls from agents, the majority from PropNex and HSR. To stop these calls which were made to my residential line and severely invaded my privacy, I had contacted these agencies to request that I be taken off their mailing and contact lists. They gave me the nonchalant reply that the calls and mailers were telemarketing efforts by their agents over whom they had no control.

At my wits’ end, I then contacted the SAEA and asked it to compel these agencies to act. More than a month has passed since an e-mail message was sent to PropNex and I have not received a response to my complaint.

To date, I am still receiving nuisance calls from property agents, the last being from DTZ, whose agent showed no remorse and told me that such telemarketing calls were normal when I asked what gave her the right to call my residential line.

If the SAEA is unable to solve my problem, I have serious doubts about the effectiveness of its accreditation scheme and the ability of the real estate industry to self-regulate.

Bryan Ong


Lease buyback: HDB replies


Source : Straits Times - 4 Apr 2009

I REFER to the letter by Mr David Soh, “Lease buyback: Start at 60 instead of 62″ (Online Forum, March 7).

We wish to explain that the purpose of the Lease Buyback Scheme (LBS) is to supplement retirement needs. Hence, we have put in place the age requirement of 62, consistent with the CPF Board’s drawdown age. Moreover, if flat owners take up the scheme at a younger age, the probability of outliving the 30-year flat lease would increase while the monthly LBS payout will also be reduced.

For senior home owners who wish to unlock their housing equity before they reach 62, they should consider other options such as sub-letting a room or flat. Those above age 55 can also consider moving to a studio apartment.

Lily Wong Jee Choo (Ms)
Deputy Director (Policy & Property)
Housing & Development Board


Redas joy as it heads for the big 5-oh

Source : Business Times - 4 Apr 2009

The REAL Estate Developers’ Association of Singapore (Redas) will be marking its 50th anniversary this year with a series of monthly celebrations leading up to a gala dinner at the end of 2009. The first of the series, a 16-team dragon boat race, will kick off the festivities at Bedok Reservoir today. Foreign Affairs Minister George Yeo is the guest-of-honour for the event.

Redas was formed in March 1959 by a small group of developers under the leadership of Lee Kim Tah. Then known as the Singapore Land and Housing Developers’ Association, the organisation worked closely with the government in the property market, supporting the Housing & Development Board’s (HDB) campaign to provide homes for every Singaporean.

Besides this, Redas is actively consulted by the government in housing-related legislation, the first of such being the landmark Housing Developers (Control & Licensing) Act of 1965. With its extensive network, Redas provides regular feedback on conditions within the industry.

Redas has come a long way. Its members have advanced into other areas of property development over the years, developing and owning major commercial, industrial, hotel and service apartment properties in Singapore and overseas. In some cases, certain world-class residential projects have won international awards, giving the Redas brand global acclaim.

Redas members have also progressed with the times to provide investors with alternative investments such as Real Estate Investments Trusts (Reits).

There are currently about 300 developers and others in supporting industries who are Redas members, benefiting from a wide range of activities that cater to the property and building industry.

‘Redas has over the last fifty years played a positive contributory role to the real estate industry,’ said current president Simon Cheong, chairman and CEO of SC Global Developments.

‘We are confident our members have the drive and enterprise to meet the challenges ahead. Notwithstanding the current financial crisis, Redas members will continue to actively participate in Singapore’s aspiration to be a leading global city.’


Singapore is 10th for highest expatriate rents

Source : Business Times - 4 Apr 2009

Some are leaving and for those staying on, prospects of allowance cuts loom.

SINGAPORE is still one of the 10 most expensive cities for expatriates to rent housing, a survey has found. Comparing residential rents in 300 cities for expats, Mercer placed Singapore in tenth spot for costs in February this year. It ranked ninth in September 2008.

According to Mercer, weakening demand for property caused rents to ease and helped Singapore move down a notch on its rental property index.

Property consultant DTZ said in a report this week that average monthly rents for luxury condos and apartments in prime districts fell as much as 18.8 per cent in Q1 2009 to $5.20 psf from a quarter earlier. This brought rents back to Q3 2006 levels.

‘The leasing market bore the brunt of corporate downsizing and increased supply from new completions,’ DTZ said. ‘Some investors have resorted to renting out their units for the time being, hoping to sell when the market recovers.’

Other property consultants have noted that expats are leaving Singapore. And for those staying behind, there is the prospect of a cut in allowances.

Mercer says Hong Kong is in a similar situation. Ranked last year as the second most expensive city for expatriate rental housing, it now takes third place after the economic slowdown eroded demand.

While Singapore and Hong Kong have slipped down the chart, a few other Asian cities have become costlier places for expats to rent as their currencies rose. Because Mercer based cost comparisons on the US dollar, exchange rate movements affected rankings.

‘The world’s housing markets have been sliding since 2008, and strong currency fluctuations in the past few months have also had a strong impact on the comparative cost of expatriate housing,’ said Mercer’s information product solutions business principal and Asia-Pacific global mobility leader Cathy Loose.

Tokyo, for instance, has moved up one spot from last September to second place on the rental property index as the yen appreciated 17 per cent against the US dollar. And Beijing has jumped four spots to number six. Together with Mumbai and New Delhi, six Asian cities are in the top 10.

Moscow leads the latest index, while New York City, Geneva and London take fifth, seventh and ninth positions respectively. London has fallen five places from last year as the pound depreciated and residential rents softened.

In the region, Jakarta, Kuala Lumpur and Bangkok are ranked 34th, 36th and 44th respectively. ‘Over the next few months, we would expect to see a general decline in rents due to the economic slowdown,’ Mercer said. In Singapore, DTZ says average monthly rents for non-landed luxury homes could drop 25 per cent or more this year.

Companies sending their employees abroad will benefit from falling rents, Mercer noted: ‘Multinational companies should closely monitor the changes in markets so as not to lose out on opportunities for cost savings.’


65% of Mi Casa’s pre-launched units sold


Source : Channel NewsAsia - 4 Apr 2009

Although private residential property prices saw one of the worst declines in the first quarter of this year, analysts noted that the mass market segment is still well supported by HDB upgraders.

This can be seen by the sales of units at Mi Casa, the first private condominium in Choa Chu Kang Town Centre in eight years.

It has been one week since the developer pre-launched 200 units, and 65 per cent of these units have been sold. Eighty per cent of the buyers were HDB upgraders.

Chief operating officer of Far East Organisation, Chia Boon Kuah, said most of the buyers were people who were upgrading, but there was also a significant number of investors. “We are expecting to inch up our prices as we continue to sell steadily,” he added.


Friday, April 3, 2009

Morgan Stanley unit launches ‘upmarket’ dormitory


Source : Business Times - 3 Apr 2009

AVERY Strategic Investments (ASI), a Morgan Stanley-controlled property venture, has launched Avery Lodge, a six-storey ‘upmarket’ foreign worker dormitory at Jurong.

The $100 million project includes a canteen, mini-mart and gymnasium, with a clinic to be opened later. On a two-hectare site and able to house up to 8,000 workers, it is Singapore’s biggest foreign worker dormitory. Vernon Chua, managing director of Averic Capital Management, which has a 3 per cent stake in ASI and is asset manager for the venture, said that the firm is on the lookout for similar investment opportunities.

The market can take more developments like Avery Lodge, he said, adding that occupancy rates at the firm’s dormitories are healthy.

80 per cent of available accommodation at Avery Lodge has been taken up, while the three other dormitories in ASI’s portfolio, which were acquired from JTC Corp in 2007, are at least 90 per cent occupied.

‘Demand for such housing will continue to grow, especially given the inflow of foreign workers contracted to the integrated resorts,’ Mr Chua said.

Demand need not necessarily be driven by new arrivals, he noted. Companies may choose to relocate workers already in Singapore, but housed in ‘less-than-ideal’ accommodation, to better facilities such as Avery Lodge, which charges a 5-10 per cent premium over the prevailing market rate.

Craig Pearce, vice-president of Morgan Stanley Real Estate, said that the dormitory sector is resilient and unlike other real estate asset classes, it has not suffered ‘a major dive in income stream’.

Also unlike other types of property, there is not a large oversupply of dormitory facilities in Singapore, he added. Down the track, Morgan Stanley may consider an exit strategy such as sale to a private purchaser or industrial Reit, Mr Pearce said.

But Mr Chua said that an exit strategy will not be implemented right away as ‘the market right now is not conducive’.


Property to change name - Amanusa

Source : Straits Times - 3 Apr 2009

A YIO Chu Kang cluster housing project, Amanusa, has been ordered to change its name after the Court of Appeal ruled that its developer had tried to pass it off as part of an ultra-luxe resort group.

Amanusa buyers will not be able to back out of the sale on the basis of the name change. — PHOTO: DTZ

In February 2006, Aman Resorts, which owns the Amanusa resort in Bali, learnt about Novelty’s use of the same name through the latter’s advertisements.

It asked Novelty to change its name, and when Novelty refused, it sued.

According to court documents, Aman claimed Novelty had tried to pass off its properties as Aman Resorts’ ‘with the intention of confusing or deceiving members of the public.’

The High Court had ruled against Novelty in May 2007; Novelty appealed, but lost again in the Court of Appeal, the highest court here.

Room rates at Amanusa start from US$700 per night. Aman Resorts also operates 15 other luxury resorts in exotic locales like Morocco and Bhutan.

Aman Resorts, which moved its corporate headquarters from Hongkong to Singapore in 1999, does not have any properties here.

By comparison, Novelty’s property is a ‘modest cluster housing project’, said Justice VK Rajah, in a 126-page Mar 31 written judgement.

Novelty’s Amanusa, comprising 36 freehold three-storey houses built on a 56,000 square foot site off Old Yio Chu Kang Road, was priced at about $450 per square foot. Each unit reportedly sold for between $1.3 million and $1.8 million. The developer is behind other condominiums like Tanjong Katong’s Taipan Jade and Newton’s Iridium.

In his ruling, said Justice Rajah, said that Novelty’s use of the Amanusa name had indeed created ‘a likelihood of confusion arising from the misrepresentation’.

In addition, he said, Novelty’s use fo the name ‘is likely to tarnish the goodwill attached to the ‘Aman’ names because of the difference in quality of the accommodation provided’ the two parties.

Amanusa buyers will not be able to back out of the sale on the basis of the name change. According to the judgement, buyers had signed off on a clause that they would go ahead with the transaction even if the name was changed to something else.


Court quashes en bloc sale of Horizon Towers


Source : Business Times - 3 Apr 2009

Landmark ruling also redefines roles of sales committees, Strata Titles Board

The minority owners of Horizon Towers have finally won the fight to block the $500 million collective sale of the development, ending a battle that lasted more than two years.

Overturning the High Court and STB rulings, the Court of Appeal ruled that there were problems with the sale of Horizon Towers from the start.

The Court of Appeal yesterday dismissed the en bloc sale after several owners appealed to it to throw out last July’s High Court decision, which backed the sale of the property to Singapore-listed Hotel Properties Ltd (HPL) and its partners Morgan Stanley Real Estate and Qatar Investment Authority.

Yesterday’s judgment is final - and means that the sale of Horizon Towers will not go through.

In the judgement, Justice V K Rajah also redefined the duties of a sales committee and the Strata Titles Board (STB) when dealing with collective sales. But some market watchers say that sales committees may find the new scope of duties difficult to carry out.

The judgment marks the first time that the Supreme Court has decided in favour of minority owners in a disputed en bloc sale, said the minority owners’ lawyer Philip Fong, a partner with Harry Elias Partnership.

The Horizon Towers saga began in January 2007 when the majority owners accepted a price of just under $850 per square foot (psf) of gross floor area for the 99-year leasehold property in Leonie Hill.

But when the property market continued to boom after the deal was signed, many owners believed that the $500 million reserve price was too low. Residents who were against the sale argued that it was done in bad faith and said that a higher $510 million offer from Hong Kong firm Vineyard Holdings was not taken seriously.

STB and the High Court dismissed the minority owners’ objections. The High Court decided that as long as STB finds that a purchase price is fair, it has fulfilled its duty and is entitled to approve an en bloc sale.

But yesterday, overturning the High Court and STB rulings, the Court of Appeal ruled that there were problems with the sale of Horizon Towers from the start. Justice Rajah said that the sales committee did not fulfil its duty because it did not secure the best price obtainable for the property.

In his judgment, he also spelled out the court’s view of a sales committee’s duties. Among other things, a sales committee is expected to follow up all expressions of interest and offers, and carry out sufficient investigations and due diligence to determine their genuineness. A sales committee is also tasked with creating competition between interested purchasers and ‘waiting for the most propitious timing for the sale in order to obtain the best price’.

Likewise, Justice Rajah said that STB must play a pro-active role when it comes to disputed cases, rather than simply listening to the evidence and arguments of both sides and then ruling on their differences.

‘Despite the reference to its ‘mediation-arbitration’ function, STB has a significant inquisitorial role to play,’ he said. ‘It is not confined to what is presented to it by the contending parties, but must seek out the facts whenever there is evidence that the SC (sales committee) has not disclosed everything about the transaction to STB.’

Market players welcomed the greater clarity on the duties of sales committees and STB, but said that the new guidelines could dampen the collective sale market. ‘The imposition of the more defined duties and standard of conduct for a sales committee may deter owners from volunteering to serve on the committee,’ said Karamjit Singh, managing director of Credo Real Estate.

Justice Rajah also pointed out that a primary objective of the collective sale scheme was to promote the rejuvenation of older estates and the optimal use of prime land to build more quality housing in land-scarce Singapore. But now, ‘the lure of ‘windfall profits’ has been a siren song for many (especially absent landlords and speculators), to the detriment of those who do not want to lose their homes at any price’, he said.

The Court of Appeal’s ruling means that HPL and its partners will not be able to go ahead with their plan to build a 253-unit condo and eight detached houses on the site.

At $850 psf of gross floor area, the developers would have had to sell new units at about $1,500 psf to make a small profit - which might be possible for them to attain even in today’s depressed property market.

The would-be buyers are not better off for having had the sale fall through, said one industry veteran. And likewise, the owners will get to keep their homes but will not get a much better price now than what HPL and its partners offered in 2007.

‘At this stage, it does not appear that there is a clear winner or a major loser,’ said the industry veteran.


Thursday, April 2, 2009

Office occupancy posts steepest fall since 1997

Source : Business Times - 2 Apr 2009

Rents set to slide further after 18% average islandwide drop in Q1

The islandwide average office occupancy rate slid 2.1 percentage points quarter on quarter to 93.6 per cent in Q1 2009, according to DTZ. This is the steepest quarterly fall since Q3 1997, when a decline of 2.6 percentage points was recorded.

No lack of space: During the last office slump, shadow space also emerged, and according to CB Richard Ellis research reports, this amounted to more than one million sq ft at end-2002

The average office occupancy rate at Raffles Place was 92.9 per cent at end-Q1 2009, translating to the greatest quarterly decline of 2.7 percentage points since Q4 2004 when the occupancy rate fell 2.8 percentage points, DTZ said.

‘Office occupancies in Anson Road/Tanjong Pagar and decentralised areas suffered even larger declines of 3.6 percentage points to 93.7 per cent and three percentage points to 95.2 per cent respectively, due partly to the completion of Murray Terrace and two transitional office projects - 11 Tampines Concourse and Mountbatten Square,’ the property consultancy group said yesterday. Office vacancies are expected to rise further and rents will slide.

DTZ executive director Ong Choon Fah said: ‘Office demand has almost collapsed. Substantial new supply is starting to come on stream from this year, followed by more supply next year and in 2011. In addition, there is competition from shadow space.’

Shadow space refers to excess space that companies try to sub-let. There was at least 106,000 sq ft of such space available for leasing in Q1, according to DTZ. ‘This constituted only 2.9 per cent of the total vacant office space, but is expected to grow in the next few quarters as more companies are likely to return excess space to the secondary market through cost-cutting measures,’ DTZ said. ‘In addition, some companies which have pre-leased space in new projects completing within these two years are likely to sub-lease excess space as they further streamline business operations and intensify space usage.’

BT understands that Macquarie is prepared to sub-let some of the space it has signed up for at Marina Bay Financial Centre’s (MBFC) Tower 2 under the project’s first phase, which is slated to be ready in Q2 2010. Macquarie has taken more than 74,000 sq ft on levels 16 to 18 of the tower.

Market watchers said they would not be surprised if DBS Group too tries to sub-let part of the 700,000 sq ft it has leased at MBFC’s Tower 3, in the project’s second phase, given that it axed some 900 staff in November.

Elsewhere in Singapore, Citibank is said to be offering over 100,000 sq ft of shadow space at various locations, including Capital Square, Marsh & McLennan Centre and Millenia Tower.

DTZ executive director Angela Tan said: ‘Shadow space, which usually comes with existing fit-outs and shorter lease terms, allows tenants to save on initial set-up costs and provides flexibility.’

Shadow space also emerged during the last office slump. According to CB Richard Ellis research reports, this amounted to more than one million sq ft at end-2002.

DTZ said the fall in office rents gathered momentum in Q1 2009, with an average decline of 18 per cent from the preceding quarter across the island. Prime office rents in Raffles Place dived 25 per cent quarter on quarter to an average of $12 psf per month in Q1.

Average office rents in Tampines Finance Park fell the most, easing 32 per cent to $5 psf per month amid an increase in supply emanating from the newly completed 11 Tampines Concourse and the availability of shadow space at Tampines Plaza.


Q1 industrial rents fall at faster pace

Source : Business Times - 2 Apr 2009

7% average drop q-o-q follows 3% decline in 4Q08: DTZ

Industrial rents fell faster in the first quarter of this year against a backdrop of shrinking demand amid the recession.

DTZ said yesterday the average drop was 7 per cent quarter on quarter, after a 3 per cent decline in the preceding Q4 2008.

Average rents for upper-storey private conventional industrial space fell 7.5 per cent quarter on quarter to $1.85 psf per month in Q1, after a 2.4 per cent dip in Q4.

First-storey rents fell 4.3 per cent to $2.20 psf per month in Q1, again a bigger decline than 2.1 per cent in Q4.

Hi-tech industrial property, which includes business and science park space, has been hit by a double whammy of less spillover demand from the office sector and lower industrial demand - and saw the biggest drop in rents in Q1. The average monthly rent for this space slid 9.3 per cent quarter on quarter to $3.90 psf in Q1, after a 4.4 per cent drop in Q4.

DTZ said leasing activity was quiet in Q1, as manufacturers focused on cost containment. Sub-letting activity is expected to increase over the next few quarters as tenants downsize operations and return space to the secondary market. A huge supply of 15.4 million sq ft of private industrial space is slated for completion this year. This includes about 2.4 million sq ft of business park space, of which about 48 per cent is pre-committed.

‘In the wake of weaker demand, this large impending supply of industrial space will add downward pressure on rents,’ DTZ said. Industrial property investment sales in the first three months of this year include Premium Automobile’s $12 million purchase of a site at 281 Alexandra Road for a sales, service and parts facility.

And Beng Kuang Marine’s fully owned unit Pico Enterprise, a long-term tenant of 38 Tuas View Square, obtained an option to buy the 60-year leasehold property for $7.2 million. With the economy showing no sign of bottoming, the outlook for the industrial property market is bleak, DTZ said.

‘Competition among industrial landlords is expected to intensify, especially in the face of huge new supply this year,’ it said.

‘To help ease occupancy costs, JTC Corp recently relaxed the 50 per cent sub-letting cap and allowed tenants to sub-let their entire gross floor area until Dec 31, 2011.

‘JTC and the Housing and Development Board also gave 15 per cent rent rebates to their tenants. These will add to pressure on other landlords to lower rents and offer more lease incentives or flexible lease structures to retain existing tenants and attract new ones.’


Private home prices take double-digit dive

Source : Business Times - 2 Apr 2009

Even gravity-defying HDB resale prices show signs of cracking in Q1 with 0.6% slide

Private home prices plunged 13.8 per cent in the first three months of this year - a record quarterly drop as developers and other market players slashed their expectations.

It was the third quarterly fall in prices - and much steeper than the 6.1 per cent drop in the preceding Q4 2008, according to advance estimates released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) yesterday. Private home prices dipped 1.8 per cent in Q3 2008 after 17 straight quarters of growth.

Prices of resale HDB flats, which seemed to defy gravity and grew throughout 2008, also fell in Q1 2009 - by 0.6 per cent - after nine quarters of growth.

Analysts were expecting a significant drop in private home prices, but the actual fall was bigger than thought. In recent months, developers have cut the selling prices of new homes and sellers of secondary properties have also trimmed their asking prices.

‘The fall is not surprising as a lot of developers have reduced prices to move new units, and in the resale market, people are now asking for more reasonable prices,’ said DTZ’s senior director Chua Chor Hoon.

DMG & Partners Securities’ analyst Brandon Lee said that new projects and units in previously launched but unsold projects, were being launched or relaunched at 10-30 per cent discounts to the original intended selling prices. Also, there were distressed sales in the secondary market.

Aggressive price cutting by developers seems to have paid off. An estimated 2,100-plus new homes were sold in Q1 - the highest level since the market was hit by the US mortgage crisis in the last quarter of 2007 and more than four times the number of new units sold in Q4 2008. But the pick-up in sales volume was at the expense of prices.

URA’s non-landed private home price index for the Core Central Region, which includes the prime districts, financial district and Sentosa Cove, fell 15.2 per cent quarter-on-quarter in Q1. In the Rest of Central Region, prices fell 17.2 per cent. And in the Outside Central Region, which is a proxy for suburban mass-market locations, they fell 7.5 per cent.

The drop in HDB resale prices took some observers by surprise, as analysts tracking the sector had said that they would continue to rise in the first half of this year, though at a slower pace than in 2008.

‘HDB resale prices increased some 32 per cent since Q1 2007 before reaching a new peak in Q4 2008,’ said ERA Asia-Pacific associate director Eugene Lim. The marginal decrease in Q1 shows HDB resale prices are now moving in tandem with the deteriorating economic and unemployment conditions.

Analysts said that the main cause of the fall in HDB’s resale index is the lower cash-over-valuation (COV) amounts that buyers are now willing to pay. ‘The slight dip is probably due to more buyers of HDB flats being resistant to paying high levels of COV,’ said PropNex chief executive Mohamed Ismail. ‘While demand for HDB resale flats is evidently still strong, sellers in this economic climate are realising the weaker buying power of consumers.’

Private home prices are expected to continue falling in the rest of the year. ‘While the fall in prices of private residential properties in the first quarter was acute, the drab economic situation is expected to continue to place downward pressure on home prices in 2009,’ said Nicholas Mak, director of research and consultancy at Knight Frank.

But the pace of decline is expected to taper off. ‘Developers have already made a quantum leap in reducing prices in Q1 2009 and although further declines in launch prices can be expected, the incremental drop is likely to be marginal and more gradual,’ said Tay Huey Ying, director for research and advisory at Colliers International. Ms Tay expects the rate of decline in the URA price index to taper off to about 8 per cent in Q2 2009 and then 3-5 per cent for each of the subsequent two quarters.

For the full year, analysts put the overall drop in private home prices at 20-30 per cent, with homes in the suburban areas taking the smallest hit.

The fall in HDB prices, on the other hand, is expected to pick up steam in the rest of 2009. Analysts expect that HDB resale prices will fall by between 5 and 15 per cent for the whole of 2009.


URA to launch hotel site at Short St in reserve list in 2 wks


Source : Business Times - 2 Apr 2009

The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) on Thursday announced that it has accepted an application from a developer to release for sale by tender a site at Short Street for hotel development.

The 99-year leasehold site is being offered through the reserve list system.

‘URA has received an application from a developer who has committed to bid at a price of not less than $8.8 million (US$5.8 million) for the land parcel at Short Street. In accordance with the procedures of the reserve list system, URA is making public this price. However, the identity of the applicant will not be released,’ the planning authority said in a news release.

The tender will be launched in about two weeks and close after about eight weeks.

The site, with a land area of about 0.12 hectare, can be developed into a 12-storey boutique hotel with about 100 rooms. The site is located within the Bras Basah-Bugis district, which has a synergistic cluster of arts, culture and education facilities, URA noted.


URA to launch tender for Short Street hotel site


Source : Channel NewsAsia - 2 Apr 2009

The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) is putting up a 0.12 hectare hotel site at Short Street for tender.

This, after it received an application from a developer to bid for the land parcel, which is located within the Bras Basah-Bugis district.

URA says the site can generate a maximum gross floor area of 4,077 square metres and is ideal for boutique hotel development.

It adds that the bid received came to no less than S$8.8 million.

An eight-week long public tender for the land parcel will be held in mid-April and the launch date is due to be announced later.

The site was made available for sale through the reserve list under the Government Land Sales Programme on August 26, 2008.


Manhattan price slide gives sellers the chills


Source : Business Times - 2 Apr 2009

Consider apartment 13C at 730 Park Avenue on Manhattan’s storied ‘Silk Stocking’ district. It has seven rooms, a fireplace, excellent nearby schools - and a price that has been cut 46 per cent.

The tale of 13C illustrates a role reversal of sorts underway in Manhattan real estate.

Sellers of property have called the shots for years on the 58.8 square kilometre island that is the financial capital of the United States. But now buyers are having their day, according to the first-quarter reports due from major real estate brokerages today.

In the fourth quarter of 2008, for example, resale median prices in Manhattan fell 9.5 per cent for condominiums and 5.2 per cent for co-ops compared with the third quarter of 2008, according to real estate website StreetEasy. com.

This quarter, they declined even more, both compared with the prior year’s first quarter and sequentially, said Sofia Kim, the website’s head of research.

From the market peak between the fourth quarter of 2007 and the first quarter of 2008, listing prices - typically higher than the selling price in a buyers’ market - plunged between 10 and 20 per cent.

‘I still don’t think the market has bottomed out,’ said Ms Kim, who expects prices to decline at least another 10 per cent.

In the first quarter of 2009, the number of Manhattan homes on the market hit 15,460, a 41 per cent increase compared with the first quarter of 2008, according to Street Easy.com data.

The reports are expected to reflect job losses on Wall Street, which have depleted Manhattan’s pool of potential homebuyers, causing uncommon declines in real estate prices.

In February, New York City’s unemployment rate rose 1.2 percentage points to 8.1 per cent from January, the highest level since October 2003, the state Department of Labor said last week.

The reports paint an ugly picture for sellers in the first quarter, when few creditworthy buyers were prepared to step into the market, those privy to the reports said.

‘This is the first quarter that we’re really seeing price drops,’ said Pam Liebman, CEO of the Corcoran Group, the city’s largest real estate brokerage.

‘These days, the buyers are feeling better than the sellers. The last couple of years, it was the other way around,’ Ms Liebman said.

In a market where prices have steadily risen for years, ‘a seller today simply has to be the lowest in their category’, said Brown Harris Stevens broker Elaine Clayman.

‘They have to understand that their apartment could be worth less in a month,’ said Ms Clayman, who has seen rejected buyers return with lower offers, generating ‘tremendous frustration for the seller’. Sellers are struggling to accept this new reality, said appraiser Jonathan Miller, author of brokerage Prudential Douglas Elliman’s market report.

Mr Miller said that while sellers no longer put their prices at 10 per cent above their building’s peak price, they are still reluctant to price their homes below that peak price.

‘Sellers are still the farthest behind the market I’ve ever seen,’ he said.

Sellers must acknowledge the shrinking of the market in the aftermath of the upheaval on Wall Street, which cost jobs as well as billions of dollars in bonuses that financial services employees might have used to trade up to a new living space, said Paul Herrick, a real estate lawyer. He estimates his business in the first quarter was off 50 per cent compared with last year.

Already in 2008, Wall Street firms slashed bonuses by 44 per cent, cutting the total to US$18.4 billion from US$32.9 billion in 2007, state Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli said in a January report. With intense pressure on banks and other companies getting government bailouts to rein in compensation, that figure could head lower this year.

As a result, Mr Herrick said, bonus buyers have gone missing from the market. ‘The buyer who comes off Wall Street with bonus in hand did not appear this year. Usually, that buyer moves big time into the market by the second week of January.’


Two Dubai firms’ credit rating pared


Source : Business Times - 2 Apr 2009

Moody’s cites exposure to the former boomtown’s property downturn

Moody’s Investors Service said yesterday that it had downgraded credit ratings on two Dubai state-linked companies including Emaar Properties due to their exposure to a real estate slump in the former boomtown.

Moody’s reduced ratings for Emaar and Dubai Holding Commercial Operations Group by one notch each, taking Emaar’s rating to Baa1 from A3, two notches above ‘junk’ status.

Dubai Holding’s rating was cut to A2 from A1, while Moody’s held ratings of four other Dubai-linked firms, including DP World and the Dubai Electricity & Water Authority, at A1. All ratings were assigned a negative outlook.

‘The one-notch downgrade of both entities reflects the more severe fundamental strains facing their business models,’ said Moody’s, which in February announced that it was considering downgrading the six companies.

Dubai’s real estate sector is facing an abrupt slowdown that could see residential real estate prices fall almost 40 per cent this year, a Reuters poll forecast last month.

Emaar derives the bulk of its revenues from Dubai, where it is building the world’s tallest tower and has opened Dubai Mall, said to be the world’s biggest shopping centre.

Dubai Holding operates developers that include Dubai Properties and Tatweer.

‘Both companies are real estate master developers with hospitality businesses and are thus more immediately exposed to the Dubai real estate market,’ Moody’s said. ‘We also believe that both companies’ mandates are relatively narrower in scope compared to the companies that were confirmed.’

The Moody’s move comes after Standard & Poor’s last month downgraded credit ratings of seven Dubai companies, including Emaar, and said that it was worried about the health of banks.

Moody’s said that it retained ratings of the other Dubai firms because Dubai’s move to sell US$10 billion in bonds to the United Arab Emirates central bank eased worries about the ability of the emirate’s companies to refinance and settle debts.

Dubai will begin disbursing funds to companies in two weeks, the director-general of the Dubai Department of Finance told Reuters last week.

The funds would target Dubai World - which owns DP World and Nakheel - Dubai Holding and domestic firms in Dubai’s sovereign wealth fund’s portfolio, Nasser al-Shaikh said.

Dubai is one of the seven emirates comprising the oil-exporting UAE federation, where Abu Dhabi holds more than 90 per cent of oil reserves.


Property funds in UK eyeing distressed loans


Source : Business Times - 2 Apr 2009

Barclays says some 35b euros worth needs to be refinanced by 2012

Property funds are spying rich pickings from the carnage in commercial real estate, stockpiling cash to buy discounted loans that may cost banks billions of pounds in coming years.

Mortgages supporting high-profile office or shopping mall deals are in dire need of refinancing after a record crash in prices in 2008 that has hit commercial property markets much harder than their residential counterpart.

Orchard Street Investment Management, for instance, plans to spend millions buying up loans from lenders left overexposed by the property boom that ended in 2007, hoping to make good money once markets recover.

‘The starting point (for us) are banks who are interested to find partners to help them work out the situation, and there are beginning to be a number of deals where you can have these discussions,’ chairman Chris Bartram said.

Dunfermline Building Society collapsed this past weekend partly because of an ill-timed move into commercial property lending in 2006 and 2007.

Britain has had to come to the rescue of Lloyds and Royal Bank of Scotland after their large commercial mortgage portfolios landed them in trouble.

Many of the largest property deals were funded in the market for commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS), in which debt is sliced into tranches and sold off to bondholders. By end-2008, UK CMBS investors were owed 77 billion euros (S$155.4 billion), according to a recent Barclays Capital report.

Around 35 billion euros needs to be refinanced by 2012, Barclays said, at a time when UK banks are cutting back their exposure to the property sector.

As a result, the number of CMBS loans in trouble in Europe, the Middle East and Asia (EMEA) is expected to ‘rise significantly over the coming quarters and years’, rating agency Moody’s said on Monday.

Troubled CMBS deals include those for pub owner Punch Taverns, retirement home company Four Seasons, care home owner NHP, and landmark London office building Plantation Place.

‘2008-2009 marks the start of the first significant downturn in the history of the EMEA CMBS market, which will be characterised by substantially increasing default levels of securitised commercial real estate loans,’ Moody’s said.

Average UK commercial real estate prices have fallen by 40 per cent since a market peak in mid-2007, meaning many CMBS deals have breached covenants linked to the value of the property. In addition, emptying buildings mean shortfalls in rental income to pay debt interest.

‘Tenant vacancies are going up, default rates are increasing and rents are under pressure . . . so now you’re starting to see payment defaults,’ said Gareth Davies at Close Brothers. ‘You’re starting to see this in the UK, Spain, France, where we have picked up new mandates. Not yet in Germany but there will be some.’

Close Brothers is pitching to restructure two UK CMBS deals - worth about £1 billion (S$2.2 billion) each, and both ‘well under water’.

Globally, investors have US$92.6 billion to invest in property debt trading at distressed levels, according to research and consultancy firm Prequin. ‘The market has grown substantially from 2002 when just six funds (worldwide) raised a total of US$1.04 billion . . . it only really took off in 2007 when the effects of the credit crisis became apparent,’ said Tim Friedman of Prequin.

Eleven funds are now seeking to raise about US$6.5 billion to invest in Europe. North America is the most sought-after market, with 78 per cent of funds totalling US$72 billion being raised to target the region, he said.

Most distressed investors are focusing on simpler structures rather than the more complex, multi-borrower, multi-lender structures of CMBS deals.

Funds will adopt a range of strategies to buy property assets, including acquiring distressed mortgages direct from banks, foreclosing on the properties to sell for profit when the market recovers, said Mr Friedman.

Partnering with lenders may prove more popular as banks tend not to have the infrastructure to manage properties on their own, said Simon Dunne of Savill’s Capital Advisers.


How much is too much?


Source : Straits Times - 2 Apr 2009

IT TAKES a bit for a corporate boss to get out of the finance section and into the news pages but CapitaLand boss Liew Mun Leong managed it last week with his $20.5 million bonus.

The huge payout for 2007 has quickly become talk of the town and is likely the largest bonus ever awarded to a chief executive here in a single year.

Take the three years - 2006 to 2008 - and the property chief’s total bonuses were just shy of $30 million.

Add in his actual pay and Mr Liew’s $21.67 million package for 2007 easily trumps that of other big-earning bosses such as Metro Holdings’ Jopie Ong, who collected $12.75 million in 2004, and even Venture Corp’s Wong Ngit Liong, who was $17 million richer in 2005.

Numbers like these will inevitably ignite the stock standard debate about CEO pay that tends to take hold this time of year when firms release annual reports before shareholder meetings.

For the public and many shareholders, it usually comes down to the simple question - how can one guy earn that much?

Analysts point out a crucial point about CapitaLand’s $2.8 billion net profit in 2007 - it included $608.1 million from portfolio and divestment gains.

These gains - received from actually selling investments and bricks and mortar - reflect more of a timing decision taken during a booming market.

Strike them out and the underlying profit is lower.

So that refines the question a bit further: How much of the profit can be put down to the skills of a CEO and how much is merely the effect of the market - the rising-tide-lifts-all-boats theory?

After all, the property market was white-hot that year. Few could miss the mark.

Another issue is whether he is getting far more than his peers.

For example, Mr Chew Choon Seng runs another world-class company in Singapore Airlines but earned only $3.5 million for 2007/2008.

Among Singapore’s property giants, Mr Liew’s total pay of $21.67 million in 2007 far exceeded that of City Developments executive chairman Kwek Leng Beng, who earned $7.75 million to $8 million, or Keppel Land chief executive Kevin Wong’s $3.25 million to $3.5 million.

Mr Liew pointed out that his bonus was only 0.7 per cent of the firm’s profit. If his salary were included, it would also be about 0.7 per cent. On that score, Mr Kwek received more - at 1.1 per cent of the $725 million profit - and Mr Wong, less, at 0.4 per cent of the $779.65 million profit.

A related issue is whether Mr Liew, as a professional manager, should be taking home far more than an owner-manager like Mr Kwek.

Many think that a major shareholder who also manages the company risks his entire capital going down the plughole but a professional CEO loses only his job, albeit a well-paid one.

An owner would also look to the long-term future of the company but a professional manager might be more focused on shorter-term returns or be more willing to take risks simply because it isn’t his capital at stake.

CapitaLand has shed about 60 per cent of its market capitalisation since its peak in April 2007, prompting many shareholders to lick their wounds.

A recent Citigroup report expects CapitaLand to have the lowest return on equity this year among the bigger property players, including Allgreen and Wing Tai.

What the debate signals is that here and in other countries, CEO pay is a tricky, controversial and sensitive issue.

No one likes his or her remuneration disclosed and dissected in public even as shareholders also want a say, now more than ever, with portfolios sinking fast.

The aim for firms is simple enough - to reward for upsides but penalise if the firm’s results fall short - yet few have found the magic formula.

Not for want of trying, however. There are learned papers galore on the subject, presenting boards and shareholders with a dizzying array of competing theories.

They could try EVA (economic value added) or benchmark pay to shareholder return, or link it to stock market indexes or throw in stretch goals. (Don’t ask.)

Quite a balancing act for any company, and even harder when the American International Group bonuses are rocking the White House and every shareholder and opinion page writer is venturing an opinion.

In such a climate, it is inevitable that business can get it wrong sometimes.

When what seems to be an excessive figure is announced, be it in Singapore, Britain or the United States, shareholders clamour for changes.

One easy response would be to demand that boards put a cap on pay, just as the US government wants a US$500,000 (S$760,900) pay limit for bosses in banks that have received taxpayer bailouts.

Britain introduced a ’say on pay’ vote for shareholders a few years ago on what the CEOs are paid but it was non-binding and failed to curb hefty payouts.

The US requires detailed disclosure on CEO pay - to the nearest dollar in fact - but more information has not kept remuneration in check either.

By all accounts, Mr Liew’s pay was correctly disclosed and correctly calculated - and also reviewed by auditors.

And it is true that part of Mr Liew’s 2007 bonus can be held back and that his bonus for last year was sharply down at $2.98 million.

Yet while the pay figures may be accurate, they could be criticised for lacking a sense of proportion.

How detailed an analysis did the compensation committee or the rest of the board undertake to see how high or how low the pay could go?

After all, this counts as an area of risk management - if overlooked, a company could end up paying a CEO a vast sum of money.

If the directors felt they could live with the figure of $20 million or an even higher one, then the least they can do is to justify to their shareholders how it made sense.

In fact, shareholders should also ask why this 2007 number was not even highlighted to them last year, together with the detailed basis on which the bonus is calculated.

The upcoming annual general meeting on April 23 will give investors the chance to ask some hard questions - and the company an opportunity to cast some much needed light on the issue.


Berkeley Homes to hold show in S’pore


Source : Business Times - 2 Apr 2009

Berkeley Homes is holding an exhibition here this weekend for its London development City Quarter.

The project, in Leman Street, not far from the Tower of London and the financial district, consists of two phases of new apartments and penthouses and one phase of the same inside a listed Victorian sugar warehouse that dates back to 1887.

City Quarter offers a daytime concierge, night porter, CCTV coverage and secure underground parking. It is well-connected to the rest of London through public transport, with rail lines within walking distance. It is also close to City University and London Metropolitan University’s city campus.

Berkeley said its sound finances mean it can go ahead with the project, as others fall victim to the economic downturn.

It believes the project will appeal to Singaporeans, given the stronger Sing dollar against the British pound.

The exhibition will be held at Singapore Marriott Hotel. More details and reservations are available through the website www.cityquarter.co.uk.


HDB resale flat prices start to ease

Source : Straits Times - 2 Apr 2009

First-quarter dip is first since 2006 and points to end of record run

PRICES of HDB resale flats fell in the first quarter of this year - the first decline since 2006 and a sign that the two-year run of record-breaking gains has ended.

Larger units bore the brunt of the price drop in HDB flats, and property agencies expect a decline of between 2 per cent and 10 per cent in the resale market for the full year. — ST FILE PHOTO.

Flash estimates yesterday showed that prices dropped by 0.6 per cent for the first three months, compared with the fourth quarter of last year.

Prices in the fourth quarter had increased by 1.4 per cent over the previous period and helped drive resale flat prices up by a hefty 31.2 per cent over the past two years.

The latest numbers caught industry experts by surprise and underline how the worsening recession has hit the Housing Board (HDB) market sooner than expected.

Many analysts had predicted further increases in resale prices with a decline becoming apparent only later in the year.

Agency chiefs from both PropNex and ERA Asia Pacific had recently forecast that HDB resale prices could rise by a further 3 per cent to 5 per cent this year.

But yesterday’s numbers have altered expectations overnight, with analysts now predicting a decline of anything from 2 per cent to 10 per cent this year.

Tell-tale signs in the market signalled that prices have started heading southwards, in tandem with private property prices, which plunged 13.8 per cent for the first quarter of this year, said Prop- Nex chief executive Mohamed Ismail.

‘The gloomy outlook for the past few months, coupled with more retrenchments, have hit home, and even the HDB market is feeling it,’ said Mr Ismail.

PropNex and ERA have reported buyer resistance to flats above $500,000, with five-room and executive flats feeling the brunt of the price slide.

Such flats are now being sold at below valuation, in some cases up to $40,000 under, said ERA associate director Eugene Lim.

However, there is still strong demand for three- and four-room flats as buyers and permanent residents go for the safer option, he said.

ERA transactions showed that four-room units made up 41 per cent of its sales in the first quarter, compared with 38 per cent in the fourth quarter last year.

Despite the slight dip in prices, HDB flats are generally ’still holding’ due to relatively strong demand, say experts.

Valuations of bigger flats are also likely to be lower in the face of decreasing transaction prices.

‘This will have the multiplier effect of bringing down prices for these flat types,’ said Mr Lim.

HDB’s latest numbers did not surprise Knight Frank’s director of research and consultancy, Mr Nicholas Mak, who had predicted bearish numbers from last year.

‘HDB prices cannot go against the broad economic trend, when almost all asset prices are depreciating,’ he said.

Chesterton Suntec International’s head of research, Mr Colin Tan, said it is logical that HDB resale prices have ‘turned a corner’, partly because the supply of attractively priced new flats has increased.

As demand for HDB resale flats has relatively eased, so have their prices, and they will fall gradually from here, although not drastically, he added.

ERA and Knight Frank are estimating a decline of 5 per cent to 10 per cent over the year, while PropNex has put it at 2 per cent.

Demand for resale flats will continue to come from permanent residents, people downgrading from private properties to HDB flats and those downgrading from larger to smaller homes, said ERA’s Mr Lim.

He expects total resale transactions for this year to be around 30,000 units, compared with last year’s 28,419 units, with three- and four-room units making up the bulk of sales.

Demand for smaller flat types looks set to remain high amid the recession.

HDB’s quarterly sale of 150 two- and three-room flats spread across Punggol, Queenstown, Sengkang and Yishun attracted 427 applications yesterday by the close of its first day.


En bloc sale of Horizon Towers falls through


Source : Channel NewsAsia - 2 Apr 2009

A group of homeowners has finally won the fight to keep their condominiums, ending a two-year legal saga.

In an unprecedented move, the Court of Appeal has ruled in favour of owners who objected to the S$500 million en bloc sale of Horizon Towers.

The Leonie Road condominium was to have been sold in 2007 to Hotel Properties and its partners.

Had the en bloc sale gone through, owners of its 199 units would have earned S$2.3 million each, while 11 penthouse owners would have received about S$4 million each.

In its judgement, the court said the Strata Titles Board, which approved the sale, had not done enough to investigate when objections were raised.

It also said that the sales committee was not transparent when it did not pursue a higher possible price offered by another buyer.

The lawyer, acting on behalf of the minority owners, said the judgement enhances existing laws which require sales committee members to be more transparent.

Philip Fong, partner, Harry Elias Partnership, said: “This particular judgement actually deals with specific aspects such as if there’s a potential conflict of interest, when sales committee members have owned additional units – should they disclose or not disclose that fact.

“The fact that there’s a higher offer and there are changing market conditions, should they go back to the subsidiary proprietors? All these make it very clear that the committee is to act in the interests of all subsidiary proprietors and not the majority.”

When asked how they feel about the outcome, a spokesperson for the majority owners said it is not a case of whether they’re happy or unhappy, but it is a decision they have to honour.

Channel NewsAsia understands that some homeowners have spent up to S$30,000 each in lawyers’ fees.

Market-watchers said the outcome would affect homeowners who might have purchased other properties. These owners are still likely to be able to sell their units, but at a marginally lower price of about S$800 per square foot, compared to the S$850 per square foot agreed in the en bloc sale.

Observers said the case and the Court of Appeal’s unprecedented decision will set a benchmark for other similar cases in the future.


Horizon Towers sale won’t go ahead


Source : Business Times - 2 Apr 2009

After a protracted battle that lasted more than two years, the minority owners of Horizon Towers have finally gotten their wish - the $500 million collective sale of the property to Hotel Properties Limited (HPL) and its partners has been called off.

Singapore’s Court of Appeal on Thursday dismissed the en bloc sale after four owners appealed to it to throw out a High Court decision handed down last July that backed the property’s sale of the property to HPL and partners Morgan Stanley Real Estate and Qatar Investment Authority.

The Court of Appeal’s decision is the final decision on the matter, which means that the acquisition of the property will not proceed.


Short Street hotel site receives $8.8m offer


Source : Business Times - 2 Apr 2009

THE Urban Redevelopment Authority says that a reserve list hotel site in Short Street has received a committed bid of $8.8 million from an unnamed developer and the site will now be put up for public tender.

The trigger price works out to about $200 per sq ft per plot ratio.

The 12,535.6 sq ft site has a maximum permissible gross floor area of 43,884.4 sq ft and can be built up to 12 storeys.

URA said that the site can accommodate between 90-100 hotel rooms.

Cushman & Wakefield managing director Donald Han said that based on market conditions, the final tender price may not be too far off from the trigger price.

‘There has been a huge drop in hotel occupancy levels,’ he said, adding that occupancy and revenue per available room are estimated to have fallen by 20 per cent in recent months.

Chee Hok Yean, executive vice-president at Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels, also reckons the trigger price is fair, given weak economic conditions, lower tourists arrivals and impending supply. ‘The site is in a revitalised precinct and will have potential for a new concept lodging facility,’ she said.

In October 2008, a hotel site at Kallang and Jellicoe roads was sold for $51 million or about $250 psf ppr. There was only one bidder in that tender.

Given that the Short Street site is well located, the trigger price does seem low.

Robert McIntosh, executive director at CBRE Hotels, said that with prices of new developments falling, it is not surprising that land prices should follow. He believes the potential developer of the Short Street site is likely to position the hotel as either a three-star or boutique establishment.

On the upside, he noted that construction costs have been falling ‘rapidly’.

URA will launch the public tender for the site in about two weeks, and the tender period will be about eight weeks.


Ascott Group aims for bigger global presence


Source : Business Times - 2 Apr 2009

SERVICE residence owner-operator The Ascott Group, which is a wholly owned subsidiary of CapitaLand, will continue to expand over the coming years.

‘We will continue to expand our presence to more cities to further strengthen Ascott’s leadership position,’ said Chong Kee Hiong, CEO of Ascott Real Estate.

Through its three brands - Ascott, Somerset and Citadines - Ascott has 25,000 units in 66 cities. It has 189 properties in Asia-Pacific, Europe and the Gulf region.

Ascott recently launched its first Citadines service apartment in Singapore at Wilkie Road. Ascott bought over the Citadines brand in 2004 and has since extended the brand to the Asia-Pacific.

In late February, Ascott opened its first Citadines service apartment project in Japan.

Other countries where Ascott will open projects include Australia, China, India, Indonesia, Japan and Kazakhstan.

‘Going forward, we aim to further improve our services to our guests by offering wider choices in more cities as we continue to expand and grow for the next 25 years and more,’ added Gerald Lee, CEO of Ascott Hospitality, the hospitality management arm.

Ascott is celebrating its 25th anniversary with a series of promotions and rewards starting this month, which include a grand prize of free stays for 25 consecutive years, monthly rewards of free stays and 25 per cent off rates in over 25 cities each month.

These offers are ways to thank our customers for their loyal support, without which, we wouldn’t have come this far and garnered the numerous awards throughout the years, Mr Lee emphasised.


City fringe home values fall the most


Source : Straits Times - 2 Apr 2009

A dollar invested in a suburban flat is holding its value better

THE property downturn has crossed an unexpected frontier, with the index measuring the values of private flats on the city fringe falling below that which tracks those in suburban areas - the first time this has been recorded.

Values for private units closer to the city are typically thought to hold up better than those in the suburbs but their rate of price decline in the first quarter means that this belief may no longer hold true.

Simply put, a dollar invested in a suburban flat is holding its value better than the same ploughed into a city fringe unit, if the investments were made in the last quarter of 1998.

The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) uses the fourth quarter of 1998 as a base for compiling its value indexes for three parts of Singapore.

The anomaly arose after flash estimates yesterday showed that prices of city fringe flats fell by 17.2 per cent, the biggest fall of any housing sector. City centre flat prices dipped 15.2 per cent, while suburban ones slipped only 7.5 per cent.

Knight Frank’s director of research and consultancy, Mr Nicholas Mak, said the first-quarter moves could be a ’statistical blip’. ‘It’s likely a one-off thing. If it were to continue in the next two quarters, we could have some sort of a price gap compression,’ he said.

If mid-end property prices are diving at such a high speed, they would soon be near mass-market levels, he said.

This will not be sustainable as people who live in the suburbs will then upgrade to homes nearer to the city, said Credo Real Estate’s managing director, Mr Karamjit Singh.

The URA began offering property indexes based on three geographical zones in 2007. The price movements in the different segments reflect the market better than just an all-in-one index.


Wednesday, April 1, 2009

S’pore home prices in steepest drop since 1975

Source : Business Times - 1 Apr 2009

*Private home prices fell 13.8 per cent in Q1 from Q4
*Homes in central areas show largest decline
*Analysts expect further fall, but pace of decline may ease

Singapore private home prices suffered their biggest drop in more than 30 years in the first three months of 2009 as the country’s worst-ever recession hammered investor sentiment in the recently booming property market.

Home prices fell 13.8 per cent in the first quarter of this year compared with the previous quarter, the Urban Redevelopment Authority said on Wednesday, more than twice as much as the 6.1 per cent drop in October-December 2008.

The fall marked the third straight quarterly drop and was the steepest fall since the second quarter of 1975, URA said.

Shares in Singapore property firms such as CapitaLand and City Developments shrugged off the gloomy market data in spite of analysts saying the drop in the URA’s private residential property price index had been steeper than expected.

‘The trend is clearly downward,’ said Colin Tan, head of research and consultancy at Chesterton Suntec, a real estate consultancy. He said the sharp drop in the index showed momentum was strong and that home prices will fall further before they find a bottom.

But he added that the sharp decline in the index may overstate the market’s weakness because of a dearth of deals involving homes in prime areas, several of which were sold at distressed prices.

According to the data, prices of non-landed private homes in the core central region fell 15.2 per cent during the first quarter. Prices of homes in the ‘rest of central region’ declined 17.2 per cent, while prices outside the central region only dropped 7.5 per cent.

Resale prices for Housing Development Board (HDB) apartments fell 0.6 per cent in the first quarter from the last three months of last year, a separate index compiled by HDB showed.

Mohamed Ismail, chief executive of property agent PropNex, expects prices to decline a further 7-10 per cent this year in the core central and rest of central regions, and 3-5 per cent for homes in outlying areas.


Review fire safety measures in condos

Source : Straits Times - 1 Apr 2009

I RECENTLY visited a friend who lives in a condominium near Changi General Hospital. I noted that the fire engine access driveways and fire engine hardstanding areas were filled with dense landscaping.

This despite signs by the Singapore Civil Defence Force (SCDF) mounted on the walls which said, ‘Fire engine hardstanding area. Do not obstruct’ and ‘Fire engine accessway. Do not obstruct’.

Some of these areas were so close to the swimming pool that the driver would have to be extremely skilful in manoeuvring his vehicle or it would land in the pool. Lights and water pipes encased in concrete also protruded up from these areas. If there was a fire and a fire engine ladder was required to evacuate residents, fire engine personnel might be electrocuted. The turning radius at the condominium main entrance was also very narrow for a fire engine.

Although the provisions on the fire engine hardstanding area and width of accessways were in compliance with the SCDF Code of Practice, the design architect has to take into consideration that ease of access is crucial. In the event of a fire, timing is critical.

I suggest that the SCDF and the Building and Construction Authority should make it mandatory that all condominiums must be inspected by SCDF on a yearly basis. Such inspections should be carried out without prior notice to the management committees (MCs).

Building professionals and MCs must note that human lives are at stake if fire engine hardstanding areas and fire engine accessways are obstructed and accessibility is hindered.

Michael Yeo


Bank lending dips for fourth straight month

Source : Straits Times - 1 Apr 2009

BANK lending fell in February - the fourth consecutive monthly decline - as loans to businesses slumped amid the financial crisis.

But the rate of decline has again slowed, perhaps indicating that some of the Government’s schemes to make credit available to small businesses are working.

Total Singapore-dollar bank loans in February shrank 0.26 per cent to $270.5 billion from $271.2 billion in January, according to the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) yesterday.

That 0.26 per cent decline may be the key figure. Singdollar loans fell 1 per cent last November from October - the first monthly slide since December 2006 - but the rate of decline has moderated since then.

December’s decline from November was 0.37 per cent, and the rate of decline was lower again in January at 0.33 per cent.

The easier credit flow is likely to be due, in part, to government schemes to tackle the effects of the credit crunch and may herald a pick-up in economic activity.

The January Budget allocated $5.8 billion for a new programme designed to get banks to lend to business. Last November, $2.3 billion was set aside to help businesses ride out the slump.

OCBC Bank economist Selena Ling said yesterday: ‘In the coming months, we could see a turnaround for business loans.’

Other economists are more sceptical about the decline in bank lending and say the worst is far from over.

‘If you look at month-to-month changes for loan growth data, they’re pretty volatile anyway, so you need a couple more data points to make this kind of conclusion,’ said Mr Thomas Kaegi, senior economist at UBS Wealth Management Research.

‘I’m quite bearish on the domestic economy for this year. So far, we’ve seen most of the correction in the export sector and I would expect the domestic sector to start to get worse.’

A United Overseas Bank economist added: ‘Demand for loans looks set to slow as Singapore confronts its worst slowdown this year, and businesses across all sectors will be hit.’

The MAS data showed that while business lending dipped from $156.7 billion in January to $155.8 billion in February, consumer-related loans rose.

Housing and bridging loans - the biggest category of consumer lending - grew from $80.1 billion in January to $80.4 billion in February.

Bankers attribute the rise in housing-related loans to the fact that many of these loans ‘are now being progressively drawn down’ for properties that were for sale during the boom years of 2006 and 2007.

‘These are past loans that are being drawn, and for new mortgages, you’ll find that banks are very shy,’ said Rabobank International general manager Goh Chong Theng.

The drawdowns will accelerate even more next year, he said.

‘You’ll only probably see the effects of the slowdown in mortgage lending in two years’ time,’ Mr Goh added.


HDB upgraders on the move

Source : Straits Times - 1 Apr 2009

More are buying new private condo units as prices come down.

SEVEN in 10 buyers of new private homes in the first three months of the year had Housing Board addresses, making HDB upgraders the hottest group in the property market so far for this year.

In normal times, HDB upgraders account for between 20 and 50 per cent of new home buyers, DTZ said. — ST PHOTO: NURIA LING.

This is the second-highest proportion of HDB upgraders since the earliest available data in 1995, according to property consultancy DTZ’s preliminary analysis of caveats lodged in the first quarter. The record was 86 per cent, in the second quarter of 2002.

HDB upgraders refer to better-off residents of larger flats looking to move up the property ladder.

They typically buy into ‘mass market’ private developments - lower-priced condominiums in the suburbs, and preferably in the same town or region where they live.

In normal times, HDB upgraders account for between 20 and 50 per cent of new home buyers, DTZ said.

But experts reckon their numbers are now swelling during a rare ‘window period’ when the price gap between private homes and HDB resale flats is narrowing.

Supply has also played a key part in the surging interest, with mass market projects forming the bulk of recent launches, said DTZ’s senior director for research Chua Chor Hoon.

Property consultancy CB Richard Ellis thinks many HDB upgraders held back from buying during the recent property boom, particularly as prices skyrocketed in 2006 and 2007.

There were few ‘mass market’ condo launches then, as developers rushed to build high-end homes and investors scooped them up.

But now, private property prices are falling sharply at a time when HDB resale flat prices are still holding steady.

Official data shows that while fourth quarter private home prices fell 6.1 per cent, HDB resale prices actually rose 1.4 per cent.

So HDB upgraders are now keen to sell their flats and upgrade to bigger units at reasonable prices.

For example, a HDB five-room flat in Queenstown can still sell for around $600,000.

At recent property launches, suburban condo units were going for around $600 psf. This means a 1,200 sq ft three-bedroom private condo apartment costs $720,000.

At Mi Casa in Choa Chu Kang, upgraders accounted for 80 per cent of its 97 buyers so far. They also bought many units at The Caspian, beside Lakeside MRT station, Double Bay Residences in Simei and The Quartz in Buangkok.

Corporate communications and marketing manager Adam Tan and his wife Ng Bee Kay are among the HDB upgraders.

‘We looked at some properties in October but the prices were still a bit high. Then, my wife got pregnant in late November. So from January onwards, we started to search for a bigger place - with a vengeance,’ said Mr Tan, 32.

The family will be moving from their four-room flat in Bedok into a $760,000, 1,195 sq ft unit at Astoria Park, next to Kembangan MRT station.

To attract buyers, developers of some ongoing launches slashed prices in the first quarter. The average price at Waterfront Waves in Bedok was reduced from $800 psf to $600 psf, while at Kovan Residences near Kovan MRT station, prices were cut from $880 psf to $750 psf.

Experts expect the gap between private homes and HDB resale flats to continue narrowing this year, which means this is likely to be a strong year for the HDB upgraders segment.

Unlike the previous downturn in 1996, HDB prices are less likely this time around to fall quickly in tandem with private property prices.

One reason is that the supply of new HDB flats is more limited now.

‘Previously, HDB built public flats ahead of demand,’ noted DTZ’s Ms Chua. But it now builds only when there is demand via its build-to-order system.

With relaxed eligibility rules, there are also more buyers in the HDB resale market, including permanent residents and singles.

If current trends continue, the experts say, HDB resale prices should eventually fall by the end of the year in line with the bigger fall in private home prices.


Q1 home price respite fails to impress

Source : Business Times - 1 Apr 2009

The prices of resale private apartments and condos fell at a slower clip in the first quarter compared with the decline in Q4 last year, according to latest figures from DTZ.

However, the property consulting group is predicting price drops for the whole of this year to be just as sharp, if not sharper, than last year’s declines as the recession bites and more new homes are completed.

Meanwhile, property consultants estimate that developers sold between 2,000 and 2,400 private homes in Q1 2009, the best showing since Q3 2007, when the US sub-prime crisis struck.

CB Richard Ellis (CBRE) said the top-selling projects in the primary market in Q1 were Caspian (550 units), Alexis (293 units), Double Bay Residences (250 units) and The Quartz (178 units).

It predicts developers will sell some 5,000 to 6,000 units for the whole of 2009, while DTZ puts the figure a tad higher, at between 5,500 and 6,500 units. Either way, it would be an improvement from last year’s dismal showing of 4,264 units.

CBRE reckons that its predicted 10 to 15 per cent slide in private home prices across the board this year may encourage developer sales in the primary market.

DTZ said yesterday that the average price for luxury freehold condos and apartments in prime districts 9, 10 and 11 slipped 3.6 per cent quarter-on-quarter to $1,880 psf in Q1 2009, much milder than the 22 per cent q-on-q decrease in Q4 2008.

DTZ’s senior director (research) Chua Chor Hoon is predicting a 25 to 35 per cent full-year drop, similar to last year’s price fall of 30.4 per cent.

In the mass-market segment, the average price for 99-year leasehold condos/ apartments outside the prime districts eased 2.6 per cent to $555 psf in Q1, roughly half the 5.8 per cent depreciation in Q4 2008.

Ms Chua projects a full- year slide of 10 to 15 per cent, steeper than the 7.3 per cent decline last year.

Landed home prices were more resilient, with average price drops of 1.5 to 2.2 per cent in Q1, compared with declines of 3.8 to 5.8 per cent in Q4 2008.

‘The leasing market bore the brunt of corporate downsizing and increased supply from new completions. 2008 saw the completion of 10,122 private residential units, 17 per cent more than the past 10-year average of 8,671 units.

‘ Some investors have resorted to renting out their units for the time being, hoping to sell when the market recovers,’ DTZ said.

Average monthly rents for luxury condos and apartments in prime districts fell 18.8 per cent quarter-on- quarter to $5.20 psf in Q1 2009, a level last seen in Q3 2006.

Ms Chua is predicting full-year 2009 decline will come in at about 25 to 30 per cent, steeper than last year’s 15.8 per cent fall.

Based on DTZ’s figures, which are based on resale prices, the average freehold luxury condo and apartment price of $1,880 psf in Q1 this year represents a drop of about one- third from the peak of $2,800 psf in late 2007/early 2008.

In contrast, the average price of 99-year leasehold non-landed properties outside prime districts, at $555 psf in Q1 2009, has barely slipped 10 per cent in that period.

That’s not surprising since luxury home prices rose much faster than mass-market homes during the run-up. As DTZ’s Ms Chua points out, in 2007 alone, luxury home prices increased by 66 per cent, while mass-market home prices rose a more moderate 27 per cent.

DTZ says that falling construction costs will provide some leeway for developers to re-price their projects.

Says the firm’s executive director (residential) Margaret Thean: ‘Mass market and mid-tier launches will continue to dominate the primary market in 2009.’

Knight Frank managing director Tan Tiong Cheng observes that with the bigger slide in luxury home prices compared with other segments, the price gap has narrowed between high- end and mid-tier properties.

‘Eventually, this will provide some support to the high-end-market. Once developers start launching luxury projects and somebody sets a price benchmark at attractive prices, buying should return to this segment,’ Mr Tan says.

While foreigners and speculators who fuelled the run-up in luxury home prices have vanished, those who sold their homes in en bloc sales and who are still sitting on cash may be in a position to buy, he added.

DTZ’s Ms Thean cautioned that despite the recent pick-up in developer sales, weak economic fundamentals will weigh down hopes of a sustained recovery in activity.

Those agreeing with this view say that the HDB resale market - which feeds the entry-level private residential market - is expected to slow down as unemployment worsens.

ERA Asia-Pacific associate director Eugene Lim predicts that the HDB Resale Price Index will probably rise just 3 to 5 per cent for the whole of this year, after a 14.5 per cent gain last year.

Still, most observers reckon that any eventual recovery in the private housing market will be bottom- up - emanating from the mass-market segment and fuelled by income-driven buyers - rather than a top-down effect from a surge in high-end prices generated by wealth-driven buyers as seen during the 2006-2008 bull run.

‘The signal must come from the economy because we’re still the tail and the dog is the economy, because that’s where the incomes are derived, and property is always the tail end of the value chain,’ as a major developer puts it.


Commercial property sector faces $20b issue

Source : Business Times - 1 Apr 2009

SINGAPORE’S commercial real estate sector, including the Reit sector, will have to deal with the pressing issue of refinancing $19-20 billion of debt this year.

Peter Mitchell, CEO of the Asian Public Real Estate Association, said about $11 billion can be attributed to commercial real estate companies and Reits, and the remaining $8 billion to non-listed vehicles such as private property funds.

Reits account for a small portion and he estimates only about four Reits here still need to arrange refinancing, he said.

Speaking at the Cityscape Connect Business Breakfast event yesterday, Mr Mitchell added: ‘Reits have been affected like many other investment classes, but longer term, the model offers a number of attractions, including greater liquidity.’

One private property fund that faces refinancing this year is the Mapletree Industrial Trust (MIT), in which Arcapita has a 56.5 per cent stake.

Also speaking at the Cityscape event was Blake Olafson, director and head of real estate Asia at Arcapita.

Earlier this month, MIT said it would have to go back to its investors for a $140 million capital injection, largely because the valuation of its properties had fallen and a loan being extended was smaller.

Giving some insight, Mr Olafson said refinancing of a bridging loan to finance MIT’s $1.71 billion acquisition of assets last year will be due soon, but whether MIT’s investors will have to inject capital is not a certainty. ‘This will depend on the banks,’ he said, referring to the refinancing terms.

Mr Olafson thinks the industry here will take the credit crunch in its stride as there is more acceptance of low loan-to-value ratios.

He said that generally, higher equity ratios will help stabilise the market, unlike in the US where 95 or 100 per cent debt financing is the norm. ‘In the US a 50-60 per cent loan is considered as no liquidity,’ he added.

Alan Dalgleish, executive director of CB Richard Ellis, said: ‘The overall quality of lending has been higher in Asia than some of the things that have happened in Europe and the US.’

While Mr Dalgleish believes in the long-term strengths of the property market here, he does feel there could be a residential supply overhang.

‘We haven’t seen the impact of the (collective sale) sites washed through the system yet,’ he said, adding that this could take another two quarters.

He also believes there is a ‘reality check’ coming as more sellers accept that prices have to come down to levels acceptable by the market.